Technical Analysis – EURUSD trend signals turn greener

Christina Parthenidou, XM Investment Research Desk

EURUSD is stubbornly pushing for a close above the 1.1900 level this week, having surpassed it already, though marginally.

In the weekly timeframe, hopes for more improvement have strengthened after the price breached a 12-year old resistance trendline, while the first bullish cross between the 20- and 50-weekly simple moving averages (SMA) in three years is further boosting the sentiment.

Should the pair claim the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2554-1.0636 downtrend at 1.1820, closing above the 1.1900 level too, the door would open for the 1.2130 restrictive zone. Taking out the latter, the price may next stall near the 1.2286 barrier before testing its 2018 highs within the 1.2455-1.2554 zone.

It is worth noting that the RSI and the Stochastics are in overbought zone, hence a downside correction may not take long to emerge. In this case, the pair should step on the trendline and the 50% Fibonacci of 1.1594 to keep the focus on the upside. Otherwise, negative momentum could pick up steam towards the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.1368, where the 200-weekly SMA has been flattening for more than two years now. This area should be closely watched as any violation here would switch the bullish outlook to a bearish one.

In short, EURUSD continues to face upside risks in the weekly chart, though some caution is warranted as the pair has already jumped into the overbought zone.