Technical Analysis – GBPJPY corrects from 41-month low, shows signs of frailty


Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

GBPJPY’s pullback from the multi-year low of 123.97 appears to be displaying symptoms of weakness after reaching back to the 133.13 level, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 147.95 to 123.97. Backing this view is the downward sloping blue Kijun-sen line and the intact bearish mode within the Ichimoku lines.

Furthermore, the short-term oscillators hint of wavering positive momentum. The MACD, in the negative zone, although above its red trigger line looks to be slowing, while the RSI, also in bearish regions, has turned downwards ahead of its neutral mark. The stochastics are nearing the overbought level, while the declining simple moving averages (SMAs) possess a negative bearing with the 50-day SMA approaching a bearish crossover of the 200-day one.

If selling interest continues, initial support could come from the 23.6% Fibo of 129.64 ahead of the 127.32 obstacle. Moving down and past the 33-month trough of 126.53, the bears could revisit the 41-month low of 123.97, of which a break below could send the pair towards the 121.77 and 120.80 barriers from August and July of 2012 respectively.

Otherwise, if buyers pick up, the initial hurdle to overcome may be the 38.2% Fibo of 133.13 ahead of the 134.29 resistance. Next, the 50.0% Fibo of 136.00 may deter the price from reaching the swing high of 137.19, where the bearish cross of the 200-day SMA could occur. Overrunning this, the 61.8% Fibo of 138.79 and inside swing lows of 139.30 could halt further gains.

Summarizing, a negative bias is exhibited in the short-term picture if the price remains below 137.19.