Technical Analysis – GBPJPY finds obstacle at 100-day SMA; short-term outlook is bullish


Melina Deltas, XM Investment Research Desk

GBPJPY has found a strong resistance obstacle near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 124.00 to 139.80 at 133.70, where the 20- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) reside too.

The recent rebound on the short-term ascending trend line drove the stochastic oscillator towards overbought conditions, suggesting a possible pullback in the market, however, the RSI is flattening near the 50-neutral threshold.

To the upside, emanating pressure over the last couple of days has denied upside moves. If buyers manage to jump above the SMAs, a revisit of the 136.00 handle, which is the 23.6% Fibo, could unfold. Overcoming these constrictions could see resistance at the 200-day SMA at 137.43 and another leg-up could tackle the 15-week high of 139.80.

Otherwise, if sellers drive the pair below the rising trend line, the 50.0% Fibo of 131.70 could interrupt the pair ahead of the 130.00 round number, which is the 61.8% Fibo. Should it fail to do so, the 129.30 support could halt downside movements before the price sinks towards the 127.27 barrier.

Summarizing, initially the confines of the 20- and 100-day SMAs would need to be breached to revive the bullish momentum. Yet, the short-to-medium term picture remains bullish and a break above 145.00 would be required to set the clear bullish tendency in the longer timeframe.