Technical Analysis – Gold approaches the upper boundary of a range

Marios Hadjikyriacos, XM Investment Research Desk

Gold has remained confined in a narrow sideways range – with an upper bound near 1517 and a lower end around 1474 – for a month now. The short-term bias is therefore neutral, something also supported by the converging 50- and 200-period simple moving averages (SMAs) on the 4-hour chart. A clear break on either side of this range is required to set the near-term direction.

Taking a look at momentum oscillators though, they paint a slightly bullish picture, suggesting that the latest wave higher may continue for now. The RSI seems ready to challenge its 70 zone at any moment, while the MACD just crossed above its red trigger line.

If buyers manage to push above 1517, that would turn the short-term outlook to positive, opening the door for a test of the 1536 zone. Another bullish break may turn the focus to 1558, the 6-year high reached in September, before the 1600 handle comes into view.

On the downside, if the bears take the reins, their first target may be the 1503 area – roughly where the 50- and 200-period SMAs are located as well. A move down would pave the way for 1481, ahead of the lower bound of the range at 1474.

In sum, the near-term outlook is still neutral, with a decisive break either above 1517 or below 1474 needed to change that.