Technical Analysis – US 30 index caught in no-man’s land

Marios Hadjikyriacos, XM Investment Research Desk

The US 30 index suffered some losses in early August, but managed to recover part of them, and currently sits between its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The near-term bias therefore seems neutral, with a break of either SMA needed to provide a directional signal.

Short-term momentum indicators paint a flat-to-negative picture. The RSI is flattening above its 30 line, though the MACD seems to be moving deeper into the negative territory.

Further declines could encounter support near the 200-day SMA, currently at 25,594. A downside break would shift the outlook to cautiously negative, opening the door for another test of 25,075. Further down, the bears could stall near the June low of 24,600, where another violation would confirm a lower low on the daily chart, turning the picture firmly negative.

On the upside, the first obstacle may be the 26,400 area. If the buyers pierce above it, the 50-day SMA at 26,618 will be the next target, a break of which could turn the focus to 27,070. Higher still, the all-time high of 27,402 would come into view.

In brief, a move above the 50-day SMA or below the 200-day one may provide the short-term bias, but as long as the market remains above 24,600, the broader outlook still seems positive.