Technical Analysis – USDCAD bulls relax under 200-day SMA

Christina Parthenidou, XM Investment Research Desk

USDCAD bulls relaxed near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on Thursday, letting the price slip back into the 1.3200 handle.

According to the RSI and the MACD, traders could behave neutral in the short-term as the former hovers around the 50 mark and the latter is showing little strength around its red signal line.

Although the pair managed to inch above the 50% Fibonacci of the downleg from 1.3563 to 1.3015 this week, it could not close above it, making the area around 1.3290 a key resistance level to watch if the bullish pressure revives. The 1.3340 level, which is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci was a bigger hurdle in the previous month and if successfully breached, with the price rallying above the latest 1.3381 peak, the door would open for the 1.3450 handle, where the 78.6% Fibonacci is placed.

On the downside, the 1.3240-1.3200 region which encapsulates the 38.2% Fibonacci may first attract attention if the bears retake control. Next, some consolidation could emerge between 1.3175 and 1.3130, while deeper the 1.3067 barrier could also capture negative corrections.

Looking at the medium-term picture, the pair is in a sideways move within the 1.3381 and 1.3015 boundaries and any violation of this range is expected to provide the direction bias.

In brief, USDCAD is sending neutral signals both in the short- and the medium-term time-frame.