Technical Analysis – USDCAD trendless within a sideways channel

Christina Parthenidou, XM Investment Research Desk

USDCAD is in a trendless state within a horizontal channel since the pullback from the 4-year high of 1.4667, confined by the 1.4218 top and the 1.3854 base.

Technically, the neutral bias could stay in place in the short-term as the MACD is barely moving around its zero and signal lines, while the RSI has yet to show any sustainable recovery above the 50 level.

Should the price extend its latest rebound above the 1.4011 mark, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci of the upleg from 1.2950 to 1.4667, the bulls may push for a close above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 1.4100 level in order to re-challenge the upper surface of the channel at 1.4218. Breaking that ceiling, the focus will shift to the 1.4500 key resistance area if the 1.4320 barrier proves easy to overcome.

Otherwise, sellers may attempt to clear the 1.3854 floor to print a lower low near the trough of 1.3723 from March 16, confirming the negative trend signals that the bearish cross between the 20- and 50-day SMAs is currently sending. Another leg down could see the price stalling near the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.3600, while lower all attention would turn to the 1.3516 support and the 200-day SMA at 1.3450.

All in all, USDCAD is trapped within a sideways channel and only a significant break out of the box could determine the market’s next direction.