Technical Analysis – USDTRY caught in narrow range, outlook flat for now

Marios Hadjikyriacos, XM Investment Research Desk

USDTRY has been stuck in a very narrow range, with an upper bound at 5.79 and a lower one at 5.64, since the beginning of September. The near-term outlook is therefore neutral, something also supported by the converging 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). A break in either direction of the range is required to set the tone.

Reinforcing the flat picture, both the RSI and the MACD are near their neutral levels, providing no directional signals.

If the latest pullback continues and the bears manage to pierce below the 5.64 territory, where the 200-day SMA at 5.62 is also roughly located, that would turn the short-term bias to negative. In that case, the next target may be 5.45, where another downside break would strengthen the bearish view.

On the flipside, if the bulls retake control, their first obstacle would be the upper bound of this range at 5.79. Moving above it, the 5.85 area would come into view. A move above that hurdle is needed to restore confidence that the trend is turning positive, and hence open the door for 5.93.

In short, a break either above 5.79 or below 5.64 could change the current flat picture.