Technical Analysis – USDTRY gaps up, but remains confined inside a triangle

Marios Hadjikyriacos, XM Investment Research Desk

USDTRY opened with a notable gap higher this week, to test the upper boundary of a longer-term symmetrical triangle, before retreating a little. Given also that price action is taking place between the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), the outlook is neutral for now. A break on either side of the triangle is needed to provide the directional bias.

Short-term momentum indicators don’t paint a clear picture either, with the RSI pointing up but being below 50, and the MACD testing its red trigger line.

On the upside, a break above the January peak of 5.79 and the upper end of the triangle would turn the picture to cautiously positive, opening the way for a test of the 50-day SMA and the 5.93 zone. Another bullish break from there would confirm the positive bias, with the next obstacle being the May 22 high of 6.15.

On the downside, a decisive move below the crossroads of the 5.58 level, the 200-day SMA, and the lower bound of the triangle would turn the picture back to negative, opening the door for a test of 5.30.

In brief, a break above 5.79 or below 5.58 is required to change the current neutral outlook.