Technical Analysis – USDTRY holds near record high; indicators are overbought

Melina Deltas, XM Investment Research Desk

USDTRY surged to a fresh record high on Monday once again, hitting the 7.8605 barrier. The price has been in an ascending movement since December 2018; however, the technical indicators are suggesting an overbought market. The RSI is touching the 70 level, while the MACD is extending its structure above its trigger line.

Should the pair manage to strengthen its positive momentum, the next resistance could come around the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level of the down leg from 7.6619 to 6.6667 at 8.2375. Above this point, the next target could be the 8.5000 psychological level.

However, if prices are unable to hold the bullish outlook, the risk would shift back to the downside, with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7.5611 and the 7.4067 support coming into focus. A drop below these levels would signal a bearish correction touching the 50-day SMA at 7.3271 and the 7.1950 line. The next key support to watch lower is 6.8065.

To sum up, USDTRY has remained in a positive view, but any declines below the Ichimoku cloud and the 200-day SMA at 6.7173 may change this outlook.