Technical Analysis – WTI futures retain bearish picture in long term

Melina Deltas, XM Investment Research Desk

WTI futures look to be mostly bearish after a descent rally from the 65.61 resistance on January, driving the commodity down to a multi-year trough of 19.32. In the preceding days, the price reversed slightly higher, touching the 20-day simple moving average (SMA).

The short-term oscillators reflect a rise in the positive momentum. The MACD, in the negative area, has moved above its trigger line and is approaching the zero line. Additionally, the stochastics, which are moving towards the overbought territory, posted a bullish cross within the %K and the %D lines in the previous sessions. That said, a conflicting bearish picture is currently displayed within the Ichimoku lines and all the SMAs.

To the upside, an initial important resistance region from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the bearish move from 65.61 to 19.32 at 30.19 could prove difficult to surpass. Above that, the 38.2% Fibonacci of 37.00, which stands near the latest minor high, could halt the climb towards the 50.0% Fibonacci of 42.39, recouping the down gap that was created on March 6.

Otherwise, if sellers manage to move lower again the multi-year low of 19.32 could attract attention before falling to new psychological levels such as 19.00, 18.00 and 17.00.

To summarize, in the long-term, oil is expected to hold a strong bearish direction unless the price closes significantly above the 65.61 resistance area.