Technical Analysis – EURCAD below moving averages and mid-Bollinger band in sideways market

EURCAD is currently stuck between the 200-period SMA of 1.5331 and the 1.5127 level, that being the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from the 34-month low of 1.4263 to the 2-year high of 1.5991. Observing the converged and flattened SMAs, they still promote a horizontal mode whilst the short-term oscillators lean towards a negative picture.

The MACD holds slightly in the negative region and below its red signal line, while the RSI is gradually declining towards the 30 mark. The stochastics oscillator, currently bearish is dipping into oversold territory with its blue %K line.

In a negative scenario, immediate support could occur at the 50.0% Fibo of 1.5127 - where the lower Bollinger band also lies - ahead of the 1.5052 floor of the consolidation. Slipping past this important 1.5052 base, further supporting foundations at 1.5014 and 1.4976 could challenge the dive towards the 61.8% Fibo of 1.4926. A push even lower could test the 1.4792 and 1.4720 troughs.

If buyers re-merge and conquer the 1.5269 area - involving the mid-Bollinger band, 50- and 100-period SMAs - the price may then tackle the 200-period SMA resting at the 38.2% Fibo of 1.5331 ahead of the 1.5394 upper Bollinger band. Surpassing this, the upper boundary of the range at 1.5532 and the 23.6% Fibo of 1.5585 overhead may prevent the pair from reaching the 1.5709 and 1.5792 peaks.

Summarizing, the very-short-term picture is neutral-to-bearish and a close either below 1.5052 or above 1.5532 may set the next course. That said the levels near the boundaries would also need to be broken to accelerate the price in the relative direction.


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