Technical Analysis – EURSEK looks increasingly negative at lower band of Ichimoku cloud

EURSEK is currently tackling the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud, which coincides with the support from January 9. The pair’s negative sentiment seems to be aided by the nearing bearish crossover between the Tenkan sen and Kijun-sen lines and the negative signals in the technical indicators.

The MACD, in the positive region, has dropped below its red trigger line to stand just above the zero level, while the RSI continues to fall in the bearish zone. Moreover, with the %K and %D lines maintaining their downward slopes in the oversold section and the MACD and RSI still having negative room to cover, the negative outlook may extend a while longer.

To the downside, immediate friction could come from the 10.492 level coupled with the lower boundary of the cloud. Piercing below this could send the pair to revisit the eight-month low of 10.410. If sellers steer below this too, the 10.392 and 10.375 lows from back in April of 2019 could prevent the price challenging the 10.339 barrier.

Alternatively, pivoting off the 10.492 level, initial resistance may come from the 10.522 inside swing low (previous support-now-resistance) - joined by the flattened 50-day simple moving average (SMA) - and the 10.533 level overhead, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 10.932 to 10.410. Climbing higher, the 10.587 obstacle could restrict the price from reaching the 100-day SMA at 10.617 and the nearby 200-day SMA at 10.638. Clearing this, the capping 50.0% Fibo of 10.671 and peak of 10.690 could step into the spotlight.

Overall, the short-term bias appears bearish and a close below 10.492 would reinforce this outlook.

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