Technical Analysis – US 100 index flatlines between key boundaries

The US 100 stock index (cash) added more credence to its ongoing bullish wave after setting a strong foothold around June’s ceiling of 12,896 at the end of July, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 6,634 – 16,767 upleg and a broken resistance line are also positioned.

Some discomfort, however, seems to be growing as the index is flatlining just after touching the tentative descending trendline from December. The RSI and the Stochastics have recently pivoted southwards near their overbought levels, sending some discouraging signals as well, though the former is maintaining a positive trajectory within the bullish territory, while the MACD remains elevated above its red signal line despite stabilizing a bit, suggesting that the short-term risk is still tilted to the upside.

The 13,555 barrier from May will come immediately under examination if the index pierces above the trendline at 13,335. A successful penetration of that bar could then bring the 200-day SMA at 14,000 on the radar, a break of which is needed to boost buying confidence and shift the attention towards the 23.6% Fibonacci of 14,375.

In the bearish scenario, where the index re-enters the broken upward-sloping bullish channel below the 13,000 psychological mark, the 20-day SMA currently at 12,595 may attempt to prevent any declines towards the support trendline at 12,000. If the latter fails to stop the sell-off, snapping the short-term uptrend, the next destination could be the 50% Fibonacci of 11,700.

All in all, the US 100 stock index seems to be holding a cautiously bullish bias. An extension above the medium-term descending trendline may bolster buying appetite, while a close below the 13,000 – 12,896 area could trigger the next bearish round.

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