Technical Analysis – US 30 index at risk of bearish breakdown

The US 30 index (cash) has been clearly trending up since departing from July’s low of 30,128, recently topping at a four-month high of 34,279 before pulling lower.

In the four-hour chart, the bears are trying to dominate below the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) at 33,922, which has been strongly protective over the past week. From a technical perspective, they may succeed as the RSI is printing new lower lows within the bullish area, the MACD is decelerating below its red signal line, and the stochastics are heading towards their 20 oversold level, all promoting further declines.

Perhaps an extension below the nearby support of 33,825 could activate more aggressive selling orders, squeezing the price towards the 50-period SMA at 33,470. The channel's lower trendline is within breathing distance along with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 30,128 – 34,279 upleg at 33,299 and may immediately come to the rescue if sellers stay in charge, blocking the way towards the 100-period SMA at 33,000..

Should the 20-period SMA stand firm, the price may push for a close above the 34,174 barrier, and more importantly for a continuation above the bullish channel seen at 34,440. Claiming that ceiling, the uptrend may strengthen towards the next barrier at 34,890, last active during the March-April period.

In summary, the short-term risk for the US 30 index is tilted to the downside, with traders likely waiting for a break below 33,825 to further reduce exposure in the market.

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