Technical Analysis – USDTRY heads to record highs; broad bullish dynamics fizzle out



USDTRY has been rising exponentially for almost a month amid the inflation storm in Turkey, with the pair recently topping its rally at a new record high of 14.60.

Currently, there is little evidence to argue that the bullish trend in the four-hour chart could collapse in the near term. The price is gaining fresh momentum after setting another strong foothold around the 50-period simple moving average (SMA), helping the RSI to bounce on its 50 neutral mark and the Stochastics reverse near its 20 oversold mark.

In the big picture though, the RSI and the MACD have been moving against the market action, showing a bearish divergence. Hence, the broad upward pattern in the market is not completely out of risk.

Nevertheless, if the rally surges beyond the 14.60 peak in the next couple of sessions, the door would open for the 15.00 – 15.18 area, where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of yesterday’s downfall is placed.

Otherwise, should the bears take control, the price could seek shelter somewhere between its 20- and 50-period SMAs seen between 13.88 and 13.74. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of November’s steep upleg could immediately catch the fall at 13.40 if selling pressures persist, delaying a freefall towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 12.67.

Overall, USDTRY is expected to push for more gains in the coming sessions, though in the big picture, the technical indicators are suggesting bullish dynamics are losing power.

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