US Open Note – Dollar cools off, euro turns up and gold back to $1,800



Chinese data drives dollar higher

In the wake of disappointing Chinese economic statistics, which sent the British pound and the Australian dollar down, the US dollar held onto its two-decade high earlier in the day. The surge in the dollar has been fuelled by China's long-term economic lockdowns, which have contributed together with other uncertainties to an almost 10% rise in the dollar index since the beginning of 2022. In April, China's retail and industrial activity declined substantially due to widespread Covid-19 lockdowns, which kept workers and consumers at home.

After six straight weeks of advances, the dollar index is moving slightly higher today, testing 104.45, while dollar/yen is flirting with the 129.40 level. US futures are suggesting a negative open after a strong bullish day on Friday.

Euro rebounds off 5-year low

The euro is trading at $1.0425, a little higher from the previous day's more-than-five-year low of $1.0354, its lowest since early 2017. European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Monday that the weak euro in currency markets could endanger its efforts to steer inflation towards its aim.

The European Commission lowered its Eurozone growth predictions. This year's GDP growth is expected to decrease from 4.0% to 2.7%, and next year's GDP growth is expected to fall from 2.7% in the base case scenario to 6.1% and 2.7% in the basic case scenario.

ECB monetary policy tightening expectations remain low. Lift-off is scheduled for July 21st, which means the conclusion of QE on June 9 has already been completely priced in. Since last week there was only 140 bp of tightening over the next 12 months, followed by another 45 bp of tightening over the next 12 months, which would see the deposit rate peak at 1.35%, compared to 1.75% at the beginning of this week.

Pound awaits plenty of data this week; Turkish lira plunges

Currently, the pound is rising with weak momentum above the two-year low of $1.2150 as investors lowered their hopes for an interest rate hike from the Bank of England this year. Numerous data releases are coming out this week from the UK, such as employment on Tuesday and CPI inflation and retail sales on Wednesday and Friday respectively.

Today, was the eighth day in a row that the Turkish lira fell against the dollar. It declined near $15.65 against the dollar, which is close to the record low it hit in December after a series of unusual interest rate cuts.

The Ukraine war started to hurt the lira in March, when Western sanctions against Russia caused energy prices to skyrocket. This made Turkey's already high import bill even higher.

Gold back to $1,800

In gold market, the price is tumbling around $1,800/per ounce, drifting beneath the long-term ascending trend line that started from August 2021. Oil prices are heading down too, near $109.20/per barrel, continuing the somewhat upside channel in the short-term.

免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務,允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容,但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限,並受以下條款與條例約束:(i)條款與條例;(ii)風險提示;(iii)完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊,僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意,我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成,也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。

所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料,僅適用於教育/資訊類用途,不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議,或是交易價格紀錄,或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。

本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容,包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接,皆爲‘按原狀’,並作爲一般市場評論所提供,而非投資建議。請理解和接受,所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容,並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性,而根據法律要求所編寫,而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊,相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。

我們運用 cookies 提供您最佳之網頁使用經驗。更改您的cookie 設定跟詳情。

風險提示:您的資金存在風險。槓桿商品並不適合所有客戶。請詳細閱讀我們的風險聲明