US Open Note – Dollar unlocks 20-year high; euro breaks $1.04



Dollar surges but dips against yen

The dollar touched a two-decade high against a basket of currencies after US inflation fell less than expected in April. Dollar/yen is declining by 1%, meeting the 129.40 level. Despite increasingly hawkish ECB rhetoric, the euro is trading below $1.0400, falling by 1.0%, with the next key support coming at $1.0340. Euro/yen and pound/yen are plummeting over 2% today. US stock futures are suggesting a strong negative open, continuing the several days of losses.

The safe-haven greenback gained support from a worldwide equity sell-off because of investor concerns that central banks are behind the curve in their efforts to control consumer prices, with GDP already in danger from China's lengthy COVID-19 lockdowns.

This is the highest the dollar index has been since December 2002, when it was 0.1% higher at 104.54. In April, the CPI rose 8.3% annually, down from 8.5% in March but exceeding the economists' estimate of 8.1%.

Federal Reserve policy rate increases are expected to be at least half a percentage point at each of the next two meetings, on June 15 and July 27.

UK GDP falls with sterling meeting 2-year low

The pound sank to its lowest level in two years against a rising dollar as a barrage of economic data showed a slowdown in the UK's economy. Due to supply chain issues, the UK economy unexpectedly declined 0.1% in March. This marks the weakest end to the first quarter of the year. In the first three months of 2022, GDP increased by 0.8%, below both the Bank of England's prediction of 0.9% and the average annual growth rate of 1.0%.

Commodities

WTI and Brent crude oil futures plunged by 0.93% and 1.16% respectively on Thursday, while gold prices are still flirting with the long-term uptrend line around $1,840/per ounce.

Even more volatile currencies, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, dropped both around 0.9% today along with cryptocurrency prices.

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