US Open Note – Yen still plunges; oil heads towards $82.00

Dollar index on mute today; US retail sales surprised

The dollar index is hovering around 94.00 today, following two red days; however, dollar/yen is heading sharply higher towards a fresh three-year high around 114.20 due to a weakened Japanese yen. US retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.7% for September versus an upwardly revised 0.9% the prior month. A dovish Bank of Japan and growing 2-year U.S.-Japan rate differentials continue to be important factors. US futures are suggesting another positive day, after strong earnings releases.

The single currency has remained heavy, as it attempts to gain traction above $1.1600. With the BoE lift-off date approaching, sterling continues to outperform, and a clean break over $1.3750 lays the stage for a challenge of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around $1.3545. Pound/yen is flirting with a 44-month high near 157.30.

Considering the Fed's readiness to soon begin to taper, the US dollar is likely going through a correction within the longer-term upswing.

Consumer inflation figures for September were alarming. The PPI numbers came in lower than expected, but that doesn't mean inflation is no longer a concern. The Fed is not panicking yet like the BoE, but it is proceeding cautiously in removing accommodation with a view toward ultimate rate lift-off, which is most likely to occur in the latter half of 2022. Today, Bullard and Williams will make speaking appearances to discuss various topics.

Commodities and commodity currencies under the microscope

Oil prices continue to rocket higher, although they are lagging the extraordinary surge in other energy commodities. WTI hit another multi-year peak earlier today as demand continues to surpass supply following OPEC's decision not to provide a life jacket to the market. The yellow metal is lifting again after the pullback off $1,800/per ounce.

Antipodean currencies are gaining ground again. Aussie and kiwi are advancing beyond $0.7400 and $0.7000 respectively, while dollar/loonie is meeting its three-month low at $1.2335.

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