After hawkish Fed and strong GDP, can PCE inflation add more fuel to the dollar rally? – Forex News Preview



PCE inflation data will wrap up a very busy week for the US dollar on Friday. The Fed’s favourite inflation metric will be accompanied by personal income and spending numbers when released at 13:30 GMT.

No peak in sight for US inflation

The core PCE price index jumped to 4.7% year-on-year in November. It is projected to have inched up to 4.8% year-on-year in December. The monthly pace is expected to have stayed at a somewhat elevated level of 0.5%. Although this particular price measure remains some way below the broader consumer price index, which has skyrocketed to 7%, it would still reach the highest rate in nearly 39 years if the forecast is met, underscoring just how badly inflationary pressures have spiralled out of control.

The other data in the upcoming report are expected to be more mixed. Personal income likely rose by 0.5% month-on-month, but personal consumption is forecast to have declined by 0.6% m/m. The drop is unlikely to alarm the Fed or investors, however, as consumption has generally been strong lately and the advance GDP readings just confirmed this.

Economy is booming

Consumer spending rose by 3.3% in the fourth quarter, helping the economy to grow at an annualized rate of 6.9%, well above expectations of 5.5%.

All this reinforces the view that the Fed no longer has an excuse to bide its time and needs to act quickly to bring inflation closer to its 2% goal. And that was the message from Chair Powell on Wednesday, who signalled that multiple rate hikes are on the way, starting in March.

Can the dollar extend its bull run?

Unsurprisingly, the dollar is flying, backed by soaring short-term yields. The dollar index just hit a 19-month high. If the upsurge continues, the 123.6% Fibonacci extension of the November-January down leg at 97.48 is a realistic target.

In the event, however, that the rally runs out of steam and profit-takers enter, the index could hit a bump at the 50-day moving average, just above 96.0, which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務,允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容,但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限,並受以下條款與條例約束:(i)條款與條例;(ii)風險提示;(iii)完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊,僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意,我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成,也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。

所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料,僅適用於教育/資訊類用途,不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議,或是交易價格紀錄,或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。

本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容,包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接,皆爲‘按原狀’,並作爲一般市場評論所提供,而非投資建議。請理解和接受,所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容,並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性,而根據法律要求所編寫,而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊,相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。

我們運用 cookies 提供您最佳之網頁使用經驗。更改您的cookie 設定跟詳情。

風險提示:您的資金存在風險。槓桿商品並不適合所有客戶。請詳細閱讀我們的風險聲明