Australia, NZ dlrs edge higher, still shy of major resistance

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars gained some traction on Wednesday as concern over U.S. interest rates eased just enough to allow a rally in global risk appetites.

The Aussie edged up 0.1% to $0.7212 AUD=D3 and away from its recent low of $0.7130, A break above $0.7276 resistance is needed to end the deadlock of the past few weeks.

The kiwi dollar firmed to $0.6790 NZD=D3 , up from last week's trough of $0.6733. It faces stiff resistance at $0.6795 and $0.6835, with major support down around $0.6702.

Equity markets rallied and the U.S. dollar faded a bit after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell took a measured tone on the outlook for policy tightening, a relief for investors who feared he might flag a more aggressive path for increases.

While markets have moved to price in a first increase for March, they still only have three hikes this year and a peak for Fed funds at a relatively low 1.75-2.0%.

Many bank analysts are warning that outlook is still too benign and the Fed will have to take more drastic action.

"The Fed's focus needs to be on getting inflation down quickly," said Brian Martin, a senior international economist at ANZ. "The longer it waits, the higher the risk of recession, as it will certainly need to act more aggressively if it delays."

"We now expect the Fed to begin lift-off in March and raise its target range by 125 basis points this year in five steps."

Such a rapid pace would almost certainly put the Fed far ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which is still arguing that a domestic increase is unlikely until 2023.

It would also sharply widen the spread between U.S. and Australian rates and likely put downward pressure on the Aussie.

Another risk is that the increases needed to tame U.S. inflation tips the economy into recession, with ANZ noting that every tightening cycle in the past 42 years has led to a downturn.

Again, such an outcome would weigh heavily on global growth and commodity prices and, in turn, undermine the Aussie.
Editing by Robert Birsel

免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務,允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容,但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限,並受以下條款與條例約束:(i)條款與條例;(ii)風險提示;(iii)完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊,僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意,我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成,也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。


本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容,包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接,皆爲‘按原狀’,並作爲一般市場評論所提供,而非投資建議。請理解和接受,所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容,並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性,而根據法律要求所編寫,而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊,相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。

我們運用 cookies 提供您最佳之網頁使用經驗。更改您的cookie 設定跟詳情。