Australia, NZ dlrs left far behind as Fed sets the rate pace

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars were clinging to support on Thursday as the risk of early Federal Reserve rate hikes roiled global markets to the benefit of the U.S. currency.

The Aussie was hanging on at $0.7114 AUD=D3 , finding support just under $0.7100 having briefly touched a 13-month trough of $0.7063 late on Tuesday. The next major bear target is a low from November last year at $0.6990.

The kiwi dollar was also in trouble at $0.6822 NZD=D3 , uncomfortably close to its 13-month low of $0.6773. There is now not much in the way of chart support until $0.6700.

Both currencies were undermined by another bout of risk aversion which saw Wall Street swing lower overnight and longer-term Treasury yields fall sharply as the market prices in the risk of a more aggressive U.S. policy tightening.

Analysts at CBA now expect the Fed to complete tapering in April next year and start hiking the funds rate in June, which is already priced in to futures. FEDWATCH

CBA, however, expects rates to peak at 2.5% in 2024, far above the market top of 1.5% and an outcome that would likely provide long term support to the U.S. dollar.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) still insists a local rate rise in not likely until at least 2023, though the risk is for an earlier move given data show the economy is rebounding faster than previously expected.

The market is almost fully priced for a rise to 0.25% by June, much in line with the Fed, and rates nearing 1% by year end. RBAWATCH

The Fed's sudden shift toward an early end to tapering has also sparked speculation the RBA may follow and perhaps move as early as its policy meeting on Dec. 7.

"We expect the RBA to announce, next week, a decision to taper its bond buying to A$2 billion a week from February, and likely end QE in May," said Nomura economist Andrew Ticehurst.

That would be a major surprise as RBA Governor Philip Lowe has indicated a decision on tapering would not be made until the February meeting.

Much of the market already expects they will halve their bond buying to A$2 billion and end it around mid-year.

"We also forecast a first RBA rate hike in November 2022, but again flag material – and rising – risk of an earlier rate lift-off in August," Ticehurst said.
Editing by Shri Navaratnam

免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務,允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容,但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限,並受以下條款與條例約束:(i)條款與條例;(ii)風險提示;(iii)完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊,僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意,我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成,也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。


本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容,包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接,皆爲‘按原狀’,並作爲一般市場評論所提供,而非投資建議。請理解和接受,所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容,並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性,而根據法律要求所編寫,而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊,相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。

我們運用 cookies 提供您最佳之網頁使用經驗。更改您的cookie 設定跟詳情。

風險提示: 您的資金存在風險。杠杆商品可能不適合所有客戶。 請詳細閱讀我們的風險聲明