Australia, NZ dlrs veer dangerously close to 2021 lows



By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, June 18 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars were perilously close to their 2021 lows on Friday as the risk of pre-emptive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve threatened the global reflation trade and boosted their U.S. counterpart.

The Aussie was hanging on grimly at $0.7558 AUD=D3 , having slid 0.8% overnight. That brought losses for the week to a stinging 1.9% and left it sitting right on the 200-day moving average at $0.7553.

Bears were now eyeing the April low of $0.7532, where a break could unleash a move back to at least $0.7415.

Likewise, the kiwi backtracked to $0.7011 NZD=D3 and further away from the week's top at $0.7159. It has shed 1.6% for the week so far in its worst performance since mid-March.

The retreat breached the 200-day moving average at $0.7040 and risks a test of the year trough at $0.6945. A break there would be very bearish, opening the way to lows from late last year around $0.6500.

This setback has been a major disappointment to analysts at local banks who have been doggedly bullish on both currencies because of the strength of global commodity prices.

In the past, the Aussie and kiwi have tended to track their countries' terms of trade, which are very high at the moment, but the correlation seems to have broken down.

Even eye-popping reports on Australian jobs and New Zealand GDP out on Thursday could not stop the rot.

"We remain of the view that the A$ is super cheap to fair value with iron ore and coal markets up overnight – met coal made fresh 2-year highs – and employment data super strong," said Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac.

"Our assumption has been that the 200-dma at $0.7550 would hold," he added. "So a deeper correction through that level means that our stop at $0.7525 would be hit even if the A$ is very cheap to fundamentals."

The kiwi has one advantage in that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently shifted to projecting rate hikes as early as the third quarter of next year.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), however, has stuck to a very dovish script with a first hike still not seen until 2024.

The market increasingly suspects the bank will have to move sooner given the strength of the economy, and a hike is being priced in for late 2022.

November interbank futures 0#YIB: have tumbled 10 basis points to 99.740, implying a cash rate of 0.26% compared to the current 0.1%.
Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Edwina Gibbs

免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務,允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容,但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限,並受以下條款與條例約束:(i)條款與條例;(ii)風險提示;(iii)完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊,僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意,我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成,也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。

所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料,僅適用於教育/資訊類用途,不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議,或是交易價格紀錄,或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。

本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容,包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接,皆爲‘按原狀’,並作爲一般市場評論所提供,而非投資建議。請理解和接受,所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容,並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性,而根據法律要求所編寫,而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊,相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。

我們運用 cookies 提供您最佳之網頁使用經驗。更改您的cookie 設定跟詳情。

風險提示: 您的資金存在風險。杠杆商品可能不適合所有客戶。 請詳細閱讀我們的風險聲明