Brazil's real inches up ahead of expected rate hike
Brazil to hike rates by 25 basis points on Sept 18- Poll
Colombia govt will not change proposed 2025 budget value
Mexico 2nd qtr private spending down 0.6% qtr/qtr
Argentina Q2 GDP due
Latam FX up 0.6%, stocks up 0.2%
By Ankika Biswas
Sept 18 (Reuters) -A Latin American currencies index hit its highest in nearly a month on Wednesday, as investors waited to learn the size of an all-but-certain U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, while Brazil's real climbed ahead of a local monetary policy decision.
The U.S. central bank is set to announce a decision at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) that will kick off a rate-cutting cycle.
Market participants have largely factored in a 50 basis point U.S. rate cut, with such bets standing at 61%, up sharply from a week ago, CME's FedWatch Tool showed.
Although Latam countries began easing rates long before the Fed, lower U.S. rates could give EM central banks more scope to ease further to support domestic growth.
Moving in the opposite direction to its peers, however, Brazil is expected to increase its rates by 25 basis points later in the day, marking the start of a short tightening campaign to quash persistent inflationary trends.
The Brazilian real BRL= rose for the fifth straight session to strengthen 0.3% against the dollar, the highest in nearly a month.
"Brazil and particularly BRL has traded better over the last few sessions, where we remain cautiously optimistic, with assets exposed to legislative volatility," Citi analysts said.
"But with our expected hike today, probably enough to calm the waters."
The MSCI index for Latam currencies .MILA00000CUS rose 0.6% to its highest level since Aug. 20, with Peru's sol PEN= rising 0.4% to a three-week high and the Colombian peso COP= advancing 0.2%.
Colombia's Finance Minister Ricardo Bonilla said in an interview on Tuesday that its government will not modify the value of $123.9 billion for its proposed 2025 budget.
Meanwhile, the Mexican peso MXN= dropped 0.5% after briefly touching a more than three-week high in early trade, emerging as the worst-hit Latam currency on the day.
Data showed Mexican private spending fell 0.6% during the second quarter compared to the previous three-month period.
Chile's peso CLP= also weakened 0.2% against the dollar, with the local equity market shut for a public holiday.
The MSCI Latam stocks index .MILA00000PUS rose 0.2% to a three-week high, even though most of the major regional stock bourses were trading lower.
Argentina's second-quarter GDP is also due later in the day, and is expected to show the economy has shrunk 1.4% year-on-year, the fifth such decline as a recession deepens.
Elsewhere, Cuba's booming private businesses braced as the island's communist-run government implemented laws aimed at more tightly regulating the private sector amid a deepening economic crisis.
Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1415 GMT:
Equities | Latest | Daily % change |
MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF | 1088.5 | -0.18 |
MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS | 2270.29 | 0.21 |
Brazil Bovespa .BVSP | 134739.86 | -0.16 |
Mexico IPC .MXX | 52342.57 | 0.12 |
Chile IPSA .SPIPSA | 6323.95 | -0.36 |
Argentina Merval .MERV | 1813297.98 | 0.0 |
Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP | 1312.54 | -0.06 |
Currencies | Latest | Daily % change |
Brazil real BRL= | 5.4669 | 0.28 |
Mexico peso MXN= | 19.1865 | -0.49 |
Chile peso CLP= | 931.55 | -0.22 |
Colombia peso COP= | 4199 | 0.17 |
Peru sol PEN= | 3.7355 | 0.39 |
Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL | 962 | -0.051975052 |
Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB= | 1250 | 2 |
Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; editing by Barbara Lewis
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