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Driven by uncertainty, EUR/USD ignores what rates say the Fed will do



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June 14 (Reuters) -EUR/USD fell to a fresh 1-1/2-month low Friday as political uncertainty in Europe overshadowed influences from U.S. rate markets suggesting multiple cuts are coming from the Fed this year.

Investors remain jittery after last weekend's EU parliamentary election results and the snap election called by France's President, with markets already selling off over the possibility of policy changes that investors might find disagreeable.

The Euro Stoxx bank index .SX7E fell below April's monthly low then hit a 1-1/2- month low.

The uncertainty helped German-French 10-year yield spreads DE10FR10=RR trade at their widest in 12 years as investors sought the safety of German government bonds and spilled over into German-Italian 10-year spreads DE10IT10=RR, which hit 4-month wides.

The flight to quality into Bunds pushed German-U.S. spreads US2DE2=RR sharply wider, increasing the dollar's yield advantage over the euro.

Options investors have raced to price in uncertainty. EUR/USD implied volatility for 1-, 3- and 12-month tenors spiked up to levels not seen since early 2024.

However, U.S. rates markets appear to be trading on economic fundamentals, as yields and rates continue to trade soft after U.S. inflation reports and a surprise for June University of Michigan indicating consumer sentiment is waning.

Investors will now focus on the U.S. retail sales report next week. Weak results will bolster rate market views for Fed rate cuts.

If uncertainty in the EU diminishes and U.S. data weakens further, EUR/USD longs may get some relief.

For more click on FXBUZ


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

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