EU deal hopes boost forint, slowing inflation sends Czech rate bets down



By Anita Komuves and Jason Hovet

BUDAPEST, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint extended gains on Monday and government bond yields retreated from 10-year highs on hope over Budapest unlocking European Union funds, while Czech inflation eased for the first time in a year and sent rate markets falling.

In Hungary, the forint EURHUF= strengthened 0.25% to trade at 395.55 per euro, outperforming central European peers which fell on Monday.

"The final decision (on EU funds) should be published by the European Commission next week on Thursday and we expect a positive outcome ... a positive tone from the European Commission should help the forint settle below the 400 EUR/HUF level," ING analysts said.

The forint has been hammered this year, but analysts say the government ending a long-running dispute with the EU executive to unlock funds being held up could take a weight off the currency.

Long-term Hungarian government bond yields were 10-15 basis points lower than peaks hits Friday, when investors priced in increasing interbank market rates and worries about stubborn inflation.

"The forint's rate and optimism about EU talks are both supportive," a fixed-income trader in Budapest said. "Trade volumes are still very low, as investors don't really want to commit to anything before they hear from Brussels."

The yield on the 10-year bond was about 9.25%.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was little moved after data showed inflation unexpectedly slowed in August for the first time since the central bank began a hefty policy tightening cycle in June 2021.

The drop in the inflation rate raised chances a peak was being hit.

Rate markets fell up to 25 basis points, and 3x6 and 6x9 forward rate agreements traded below the interbank Pribor rate with the appearance of the first bets that interest rates could begin falling next year.

Central Europe has battled surging inflation with sharp interest rate rises since last year, but many policymakers are now largely looking to stabilise policy as price growth nears peaks and economies slow.

Data showed Romanian inflation reaching 15.3% in August, above expectations. The leu EURRON= , though, traded 0.3% lower at 4.915 versus the euro, retreating more from recent highs.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= edged down 0.2% to trade at 4.71 per euro, even as rate setter Ludwik Kotecki said inflation may remain at two-digit levels until the end of 2024, arguing interest rate hikes should be faster and stronger to curb price growth.

CEE

SNAPSH AT

MARKETS OT

1343

CET

CURREN

CIES

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

bid

close change in

2022 EURCZK Czech

<EURCZK 24.550 24.545 -0.02% +1.31 =

crown

=>

0

0

% EURHUF Hungary <EURHUF 395.55 396.55 +0.25 -6.61% =

forint =>

00

00

% EURPLN Polish <EURPLN 4.7100 4.7025 -0.16% -2.53% =

zloty

=>

EURRON Romania <EURRON 4.9150 4.9000 -0.31% +0.68 =

n leu

=>

% EURHRK Croatia <EURHRK 7.5198 7.5245 +0.06 -0.03% =

n kuna =>

% EURRSD Serbian <EURRSD 117.30 117.35 +0.04 +0.24 =

dinar

=>

00

00

%

%

Note:

calculated from

1800

daily

CET

change

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

close change in

2022 .PX

Prague

.PX

1216.7 1199.2 +1.46 #VALUE

9

700

%

! .BUX

Budapes .BUX

41204. 40910. +0.72 -18.76

t

85

81

%

% .WIG20 Warsaw <.WIG20 1549.5 1534.6 +0.97 -31.65

>

0

8

%

% .BETI Buchare .BETI 11895. 11876. +0.16 -8.93%

st

46

73

% .SBITO Ljublja <.SBITO 1085.3 1067.7 +1.65 -13.55 P

na

P>

1

2

%

% .CRBEX Zagreb <.CRBEX 1986.2 1983.1 +0.16 -4.48%

>

5

1

% .BELEX Belgrad <.BELEX 847.43 847.97 -0.06% +3.25 15

e

15>

% .SOFIX Sofia

<.SOFIX 612.82 605.20 +1.26 -3.60%

>

%

Yield Yield Spread Daily

(bid) change vs

change

Bund

in

Czech

spread

Republi

c

CZ2YT=

<CZ2YT= 6.0030 -0.261 +472b -23bps RR

2-year RR>

0

ps CZ5YT=

<CZ5YT= 5.0810 -0.213 +360b -16bps RR

5-year RR>

0

ps CZ10YT

<CZ10YT 4.4900 -0.315 +284b -26bps =RR

10-year =RR>

0

ps

Poland

PL2YT=

<PL2YT= 6.5790 -0.081 +530b -5bps RR

2-year RR>

0

ps PL5YT=

<PL5YT= 6.2760 -0.127 +480b -7bps RR

5-year RR>

0

ps PL10YT

<PL10YT 5.9020 -0.113 +425b -6bps =RR

10-year =RR>

0

ps

FORWARD

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M

interb

ank

Czech

<CZKFRA

7.25

7.14

6.66

7.26

Rep

><PRIBO

R=>

Hungary <HUFFRA 14.23 14.04 13.80 12.85

><BUBOR

=>

Poland <PLNFRA

7.26

7.20

6.98

7.15

><WIBOR

=>

Note:

are for ask

FRA

prices

quotes

****************************************

**********************


Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Chizu Nomiyama

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