Forint firms ahead of ratings review, CEE stocks fall amid recession fears



BUCHAREST, Sept 23 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint firmed against the euro on Friday ahead of a ratings review by Moody's, while central European stocks tracked losses in global shares that fell on prospects of more aggressive U.S. interest rate rises and renewed recession fears.

Analysts said Central European currencies were trying to find their footing after news of partial military mobilization in Russia dented risk appetite.

By 0900 GMT, the Hungarian forint EURHUF= was up 0.2% against the euro at 406.150, strengthening a litle following losses earlier this week prompted by Russia's mobilization.

The currency, however, has been grappling with a European Commission recommendation earlier this month to suspend some 7.5 billion euros in funding for Budapest.

Hungary's economy is set to contract for several quarters from the end of this year, with growth only expected to return in late-2023, Finance Minister Mihaly Varga said.

Some analysts also expect Moody’s to downgrade Hungary's outlook to "negative" later in the day, following a similar move from S&P in August.

The forint, which has taken the brunt of risk selling in central Europe is down some 9% against the euro overall this year and has been weighed down by Budapest's "rule of law" disputes with the European Union and soaring inflation.

Elsewhere in the region, the Polish zloty EURPLN= was up 0.1% against the euro at 4.7225, while the Czech crown EURCZK= and Romanian leu EURRON= were flat.

"The FX market in the region is looking for solid ground after the news from Russia, which for now may be provided by the stability of the gas price, and which remains the main driver," ING Bank said in a research note.

"On the other hand, interest rate differentials across the region are reaching new lows after another sell-off in developed markets and the US dollar is also not improving the outlook for CEE FX. In a nutshell, the picture is mixed and it is hard to find a way out."

Warsaw's blue chip index .WIG20 and Prague’s benchmark .PX touched two-week lows on Friday, down 2.8% and 1.2%, respectively. Bucharest’s index .BETI was at its lowest level in over six months, down 0.9% on the day, while Hungary’s benchmark .BUX fell 0.5%.

CEE

SNAPSHO AT

MARKETS T

1133

CET

CURRENC

IES

Latest Previou Daily

Change

s

bid

close

change in 2022 Czech

<EURCZK= 24.6650 24.6700 +0.02% +0.84% crown

>

Hungary <EURHUF= 406.000 407.000 +0.25% -9.02% forint

>

0

0

Polish

<EURPLN= 4.7525 4.7590 +0.14% -3.40% zloty

>

Romanian <EURRON= 4.9440 4.9435 -0.01% +0.08% leu

>

Croatian <EURHRK= 7.5220 7.5215 -0.01% -0.06% kuna

>

Serbian <EURRSD= 117.250 117.290 +0.03% +0.28% dinar

>

0

0

Note:

calculated from

1800

daily

CET

change

Latest Previou Daily

Change

s

close

change in 2022 Prague

.PX

1185.38 1198.71 -1.11% #VALUE!

00

Budapest .BUX

39163.2 39548.7 -0.97% -22.79%

5

1

Warsaw

.WIG20 1474.54 1518.19 -2.88% -34.95% Buchares .BETI

11078.5 11185.1 -0.95% -15.18% t

6

7

Ljubljan <.SBITOP 1029.32 1042.88 -1.30% -18.01% a

>

Zagreb

.CRBEX 1974.16 1974.12 +0.00% -5.06% Belgrade <.BELEX1 845.76 846.01 -0.03% +3.04%

5>

Sofia

.SOFIX

591.27 599.98 -1.45% -6.99%

Yield

Yield

Spread Daily

(bid)

change vs Bund change

in Czech

spread Republic

2-year <CZ2YT=R 6.0010 -0.1230 +412bp -15bps

R>

s 5-year <CZ5YT=R 5.1120 -0.0120 +314bp

-3bps

R>

s

<CZ10YT= 4.8640 0.0020 +287bp

-1bps 10-year RR>

s Poland

2-year <PL2YT=R 6.6250 -0.0390 +474bp

-7bps

R>

s 5-year <PL5YT=R 6.5120 -0.0400 +454bp

-6bps

R>

s

<PL10YT= 6.1580 -0.0430 +417bp

-5bps 10-year RR>

s

FORWARD

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M

interba

nk Czech

CZKFRA

7.25

7.14

6.79

7.24 Rep

<PRIBOR=

>

Hungary

HUFFRA

13.76

13.83

13.73

12.94

BUBOR=

Poland

PLNFRA

7.33

7.37

7.24

7.14

WIBOR=

Note:

are for ask

FRA

prices

quotes

*********************************************

*****************


Reporting by Luiza Ilie in Bucharest and Pawe Florkiewicz in Warsaw; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi

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