Forint stuck at three-month-lows ahead of central bank meeting



By Anita Komuves

BUDAPEST, July 27 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint was stuck at three-month lows ahead of Tuesday's central bank meeting as investors waited to see whether the bank will front-load its rate tightening cycle or opt for smaller steps.

A Reuters poll of analysts expects the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to raise its base rate by 20 basis points to 1.1%.

Traders and analysts have said that a 15 basis-point hike is already priced in by markets and that a 30 basis-point hike is needed for the forint to significantly strengthen.

The currency has weakened nearly 4% since the strong levels seen immediately after the NBH last month raised its base rate by 30 basis points to 0.9% to fight inflation, becoming the first in the European Union (EU) to tighten policy.

The forint has been pressured by a weakening global sentiment in financial markets and debates between the Hungarian government and the EU over the disbursement of recovery funds.

The forint EURHUF= was trading at 361.90 versus the euro on Tuesday morning, down 0.08% on the day.

Brokerage Equilor expects a 30 basis-point hike and wrote that due to higher-than-expected June inflation and the political tensions "a very strong signal is needed from the side of monetary policy, which could stabilise the forint's rate."

Hungary's headline inflation rate HUCPIY=ECI accelerated to an annual 5.3% in June from 5.1% in May, its highest in nearly a decade.

Commerzbank expects a 1.50% policy rate by the end of the NBH's tightening cycle.

"It would not matter much for the EUR-HUF exchange rate whether this is implemented in four 15bp steps, or a more front-loaded combination of 30bp steps. In any case, 1.50% rate would not be high enough to produce a stable exchange rate when inflation is running at 5%," Commerzbank analysts wrote.

Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= weakened by 0.15% to 25.720 per euro and the Polish zloty EURPLN= edged down 0.03% and was trading at 4.5955 as the global risk-off mood kept currencies in the region under pressure.

Stocks in the region fell, with Warsaw .WIG20 leading losses with a 1.14% decline.

CEE

SNAPSHO AT

MARKETS T

1044 CET

CURRENC

IES

Latest Previous Daily

Change

bid

close

change in 2021 EURCZK= Czech

<EURCZK= 25.7200 25.6820 -0.15% +1.98%

crown

>

EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 361.900 361.6000 -0.08% +0.23%

forint >

0

EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.5955

4.5940 -0.03% -0.79%

zloty

>

EURRON= Romania <EURRON= 4.9190

4.9188 -0.00% -1.10%

n leu

>

EURHRK= Croatia <EURHRK= 7.5080

7.5183 +0.14% +0.53%

n kuna >

EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.480 117.5500 +0.06% +0.08%

dinar

>

0

Note:

calculated from

1800

daily

CET

change

Latest Previous Daily

Change

close

change in 2021 .PX

Prague

.PX

1198.12 1198.420 -0.03% +16.65

0

% .BUX

Budapes .BUX

46762.0 46952.76 -0.41% +11.05

t

9

% .WIG20 Warsaw

.WIG20 2215.14 2240.65 -1.14% +11.65

% .BETI

Buchare .BETI

11929.6 11964.20 -0.29% +21.66

st

0

% .SBITOP Ljublja <.SBITOP 1140.58 1141.80 -0.11% +26.61

na

>

% .CRBEX Zagreb

.CRBEX 1932.98 1929.65 +0.17% +11.14

% .BELEX1 Belgrad <.BELEX1 775.00

775.00 +0.00% +3.53% 5

e

5>

.SOFIX Sofia

.SOFIX

567.59

568.39 -0.14% +26.83

%

Yield

Yield

Spread Daily

(bid)

change

vs Bund change

in

Czech

spread

Republi

c

CZ2YT=R

<CZ2YT=R 1.3940 -0.0030 +213bp

+0bps R

2-year R>

s CZ5YT=R

<CZ5YT=R 1.6020 -0.0150 +232bp

+0bps R

5-year R>

s CZ10YT=

<CZ10YT= 1.6990 -0.0100 +213bp

+1bps RR

10-year RR>

s

Poland

PL2YT=R

<PL2YT=R 0.3930

0.0240 +113bp

+3bps R

2-year R>

s PL5YT=R

<PL5YT=R 1.0020 -0.0340 +172bp

-2bps R

5-year R>

s PL10YT=

<PL10YT= 1.5260 -0.0120 +196bp

+1bps RR

10-year RR>

s

FORWARD

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M

interba

nk

Czech

CZKFRA

1.21

1.54

1.73

0.71

Rep

<PRIBOR=

>

Hungary HUFFRA

1.68

1.91

2.00

1.07

BUBOR=

Poland

PLNFRA

0.29

0.37

0.47

0.21

WIBOR=

Note:

are for ask

FRA

prices

quotes

*********************************************

*****************


Reporting by Anita Komuves; Editing by Susan Fenton

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