FX retreats as dollar consolidates gains, eyes on Fed



By Radu-Sorin Marinas

BUCHAREST, June 14 (Reuters) - Central European currencies slipped on Monday, with the forint leading regional losses against the euro and the Czech crown retreating from last week's 15 month-highs, mirroring the euro's moves against a firming U.S. dollar.

By 0850 GMT, the Hungarian forint EURHUF= eased 0.6% to 350.2 against the euro, followed by the Czech crown trading at 25.4350, 0.28% down on the day. The Romanian leu was flat at 4.9190 and the zloty traded 0.2% softer at 4.5015.

"Although bets on a rise in interest rates can still help the crown, how global markets act with the U.S. Fed will be key for this week," CSOB analysts said in a note.

The dollar consolidated gains on Monday after posting its biggest weekly rise in six weeks as traders cut bearish bets before a much-anticipated Federal Reserve meeting that might signal an outlook change for U.S. monetary policy.

Regional currencies have mostly held steady near recent highs last week, supported by positive sentiment after the European Central Bank raised its growth forecast on Thursday.

Rate hike expectations had also helped as the central European region is facing the strongest inflation rise in the European Union as economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Markets are pricing in a rate hike for June or August in the Czech Republic while the central bank of Hungary reiterated on Tuesday that it could become the first in the EU to launch a tightening cycle this month.

"In the coming days the euro/zloty exchange rate will be struggling to stay below the 4.50 barrier. However, a shadow on the zloty valuation ... will be the Friday conference of the NBP president, which reduced the chances of imminent interest rate hikes," Bank Millennium said in a note.

CEE

SNAPSHOT

AT 1057

MARKETS

CET

CURRENCIES

Latest

Previous Daily

Change

bid

close

change

in 2021 Czech

EURCZK=

25.4350

25.3640

-0.28%

+3.12% crown

Hungary

EURHUF=

350.2000 347.9400

-0.65%

+3.58% forint

Polish

EURPLN=

4.5040

4.4920

-0.27%

+1.23% zloty

Romanian EURRON=

4.9190

4.9180

-0.02%

-1.10% leu

Croatian EURHRK=

7.4900

7.4913

+0.02%

+0.77% kuna

Serbian

EURRSD=

117.4800 117.5800

+0.09%

+0.08% dinar

Note:

calculated from

1800 CET

daily

change

Latest

Previous Daily

Change

close

change

in 2021 Prague

.PX

1181.74 1177.3100

+0.38% +15.05% Budapest .BUX

48960.07 48845.84

+0.23% +16.27% Warsaw

.WIG20

2238.07

2224.67

+0.60% +12.81% Buchares .BETI

11550.88 11520.46

+0.26% +17.80% t

Ljubljan .SBITOP

1140.55

1141.85

-0.11% +26.61% a

Zagreb

.CRBEX

1969.45

1968.82

+0.03% +13.23% Belgrade .BELEX15

781.71

782.16

-0.06%

+4.42% Sofia

.SOFIX

542.29

542.48

-0.04% +21.17%

Yield

Yield

Spread

Daily

(bid)

change

vs Bund change

in Czech

spread Republic

2-year CZ2YT=RR

0.2550

-0.0710 +094bps

-7bps 5-year CZ5YT=RR

1.4950

-0.0220 +212bps

-2bps

<CZ10YT=RR

1.6920

-0.0540 +196bps

-5bps 10-year >

Poland

2-year PL2YT=RR

0.3460

0.0180 +103bps

+2bps 5-year PL5YT=RR

1.1980

-0.0190 +183bps

-2bps

<PL10YT=RR

1.7370

0.0070 +201bps

+1bps 10-year >

FORWARD

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M

interban

k Czech

CZKFRA <P

0.73

0.97

1.27

0.42 Rep

RIBOR=>

Hungary

HUFFRA <B

1.33

1.59

1.75

0.93

UBOR=>

Poland

PLNFRA <W

0.29

0.43

0.63

0.21

IBOR=>

Note:

are for ask prices

FRA

quotes

*****************************************************

*********


Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Alan Charlish in Warsaw; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise

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