Investors dumped oil as banking crisis erupted: Kemp
Repeats Wednesday's column with no changes to the text
By John Kemp
LONDON, March 22 (Reuters) -Portfolio investors dumped petroleum futures and options at one of the fastest rates on record in the early stages of the banking crisis, as traders anticipated an increased probability of a recession hitting oil consumption.
Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 139 million barrels in the six most important futures and options contracts over the seven days ending March 14.
The volume of sales was the 12th largest in the 522 weeks since ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission started to publish records in this form in 2013.
Fund managers have sold a total of 148 million barrels since the end of January, taking their combined position to 432 million barrels (20th percentile for all weeks since 2013).
In the most recent week, there were heavy sales of Brent (-65 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-59 million), U.S. gasoline (-12 million) and European gas oil (-7 million), with only minor buying of U.S. diesel (+4 million).
Investors have become much more cautious about the outlook for oil prices since the end of January in response to persistent inflation, rising interest rates and a crisis of confidence engulfing banks in North America and Europe.
Bullish long positions outnumber bearish long positions by a ratio of 3.42:1 (37th percentile) down from 5.93:1 (80th percentile) on January 24.
Chartbook: Investor positions in petroleum
In November 2022, far more U.S. banks expected to expand their balance sheets over the next six months (26 out of 80 institutions) than reduce it (8 of 80), according to the Federal Reserve’s Senior Financial Officer Survey.
As recently as January 2023, only a minority of banks said they had tightened credit standards, imposed tougher conditions or increased spreads over the last three months, according to the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey.
In the wake of the banking crisis however, credit conditions in North America and Europe are set to tighten significantly as banks fortify their balance sheets to protect themselves against possible runs.
Stress-driven tightening will amplify the tightening already underway as a result of central-bank driven interest rate increases.
Reduced credit availability to households and businesses, hitting the most marginal borrowers hardest, is an extra headwind that will likely lead to slower economic growth and a lower trajectory for petroleum consumption.
Related column:
- U.S. bank failure places oil prices under pressure (March 13, 2023)
John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own
Editing by Jan Harvey
免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務，允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容，但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限，並受以下條款與條例約束：（i）條款與條例；（ii）風險提示；（iii）完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊，僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意，我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成，也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。
所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料，僅適用於教育/資訊類用途，不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議，或是交易價格紀錄，或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。
本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容，包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接，皆爲‘按原狀’，並作爲一般市場評論所提供，而非投資建議。請理解和接受，所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容，並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性，而根據法律要求所編寫，而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊，相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。
