Latin American stocks, FX set to outperform EM peers



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Latam currencies up 0.1%; stocks add 1.1%

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Investors confident Brazil to stay on course after vote

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Polls suggest Lula will beat incumbent Bolsonaro on Oct. 2

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Latam stocks, FX set for slim quarterly gains

By Bansari Mayur Kamdar

Sept 30 (Reuters) - Currencies and stocks of resource-heavy Latin American countries are set for slim gains this quarter, outperforming their emerging market peers, while Brazil's real slipped on Friday ahead of the country's general elections.

Regional currencies .MILA00000CUS advanced 0.1% in early trading on Friday, and 0.2% for the quarter.

"It's a combination of higher commodity prices and also attractive interest rate carries in Latin America," said Brendan McKenna, international economist and FX strategist at Wells Fargo Securities.

"Also, a lot of the regional central banks were very early with their tightening cycles. Some of the carry associated with these currencies is relatively attractive than carry opportunities in EM."

The Brazilian real BRBY BRL= slipped 0.1% against the dollar ahead of voting on Sunday.

"Market participants don't want to be caught off sides heading into the election given there's some uncertainty around the potential outcome," added McKenna.

Voters head to the polls for a first-round presidential vote on Oct. 2, with former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a leftist, expanding his lead over far-right President Jair Bolsonaro in the latest polls.

Meanwhile, data showed Brazil's jobless rate continued to hover around its lowest levels in almost seven years in the three months through August, as it dropped to 8.9% amid an ongoing post-pandemic recovery.

Brazil's Bovespa index .BVSP added 1.4%.

The real and stocks have rallied this year in a sign of confidence the election won't ruin the relative safe-haven status of Latin America's largest economy, with investors cautiously looking for a calm transition as Bolsonaro appears to lay the groundwork to contest a defeat.

Latin American stocks .MILA00000PUS advanced 1.1% in volatile trading. Overall, the index has gained 0.4% this quarter, outperforming the 12.6% loss in emerging market equities .MSCIEF .

The Colombian peso COP= was down 1.4%, while the Mexican peso MXN= gained 0.3%, a day after central banks in both countries accelerated their monetary policy hiking cycles to push back against inflationary pressures.

Currencies of top copper producers Chile CLP= and Peru PEN= rose against the dollar, supported by firm metal prices, as higher-than-expected China factory data raised hopes of better demand from the world's biggest metal consumer.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 14:52 GMT: Stock indexes

Latest

Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets

875.11

0.21 .MSCIEF

MSCI LatAm

2048.35

1.04 .MILA00000PUS

Brazil Bovespa

109204.99

1.43 .BVSP

Mexico IPC

45037.46

-0.14 .MXX

Chile IPSA

5115.47

1.59 .SPIPSA

Argentina MerVal

139102.57

0.796 .MERV

Colombia COLCAP

1141.67

0.52 .COLCAP

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change Brazil real

5.4085

-0.29 BRBY

Mexico peso

20.1045

0.28 MXN=D2

Chile peso

958.6

0.41 CLP=CL

Colombia peso COP=

4584.13

-1.34

Peru sol

3.9719

-0.25 PEN=PE

Argentina peso

147.3100

-0.16 (interbank)

ARS=RASL

Argentina peso

284

1.41 (parallel) ARSB=



Lula vs Bolsonaro Lula vs Bolsonaro Link



Reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by
Paul Simao

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