U.S. yields climb despite 'not at all hawkish' Fed minutes



By Davide Barbuscia

NEW YORK, Aug 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Wednesday on lingering inflation concerns even as some investors saw minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's July meeting reaffirming a less aggressive stance in the central bank's fight against rising prices.

Fed officials said last month the pace of future interest rate increases would hinge on incoming data. The minutes did not indicate clear bias among officials for either a smaller rate increase of half a percentage point or a third consecutive 75 basis-point hike at the Sept. 20-21 meeting.

Data since the Fed's last policy meeting showed annual consumer inflation eased in July, which led many investors to price in a 50-basis-point rate increase next month. U.S. producer prices also fell last month as energy products cost less.

Benchmark 10-year yields US10YT=RR dipped about two basis points after the minutes were released while two-year note yields US2YT=RR fell by about five basis points from 3.335% to 3.285%. Still, they closed higher, at 2.894% and 3.293%, respectively.

"The minutes are not hawkish at all, and that's probably why we're seeing yields dip a little bit," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

"But I think we are data dependent, and everyone's going focus on next week's Jackson Hole, which will probably just reinforce that narrative," he added, referring to the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole, Wyoming, symposium on Aug. 25-27.

Fed funds futures traders priced in a 59.5% chance of a 50 basis-point hike in September and a 40.5% chance of a 75 basis-point increase after the minutes were released. Earlier on Wednesday bets were more skewed toward a 75 basis-point hike.

For Thomas Hayes, chairman and managing member of New York-based Great Hill Capital, for rates to stop climbing investors will need more evidence that inflation has peaked.

"I think that the market wants to see some more confirmatory inflation data, which we'll see in early September with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the PPI (Producer Price Index)," he said.

The U.S. central bank has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 225 basis points since March to fight four decade-high inflation but its rapid tightening of financial conditions has led investors to weigh inflation concerns against recessionary fears, with markets oscillating between the two narratives.

U.S. retail sales were unchanged in July as declining gasoline prices weighed on receipts at service stations, but consumer spending appeared to be holding up, which could further assuage fears that the economy was already in recession.

"While overall retail sales were unchanged in July, the details were far more encouraging, with a price-related fall in gasoline sales freeing up households to increase spending on other goods," Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.

Treasury yields edged higher after the retail sales data.

Signals that inflation remains hot around the globe fueled concerns that central banks will likely continue their tightening.

New Zealand's central bank on Wednesday delivered its seventh straight interest rate hike and signaled a more hawkish tightening path over coming months, while British consumer price inflation jumped to 10.1% in July, its highest in just over 40 years.

August 17 Wednesday 3:00PM New York / 1900 GMT

Price

Current Net

Yield % Change

(bps) Three-month bills US3MT=RR 2.5875

2.6407

-0.020 Six-month bills US6MT=RR

3.0325

3.1225

0.007 Two-year note US2YT=RR

99-115/256 3.2932

0.042 Three-year note US3YT=RR

99-146/256 3.2769

0.086 Five-year note US5YT=RR

98-166/256 3.046

0.086 Seven-year note US7YT=RR

97-190/256 2.987

0.082 10-year note US10YT=RR

98-192/256 2.8949

0.071 20-year bond US20YT=RR

98-28/256

3.3818

0.062 30-year bond US30YT=RR

97-32/256

3.1488

0.034

DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS

Last (bps) Net

Change

(bps)

U.S. 2-year dollar swap

32.25

2.75

spread

U.S. 3-year dollar swap

11.50

0.50

spread

U.S. 5-year dollar swap

3.50

0.50

spread

U.S. 10-year dollar swap

4.75

0.75

spread

U.S. 30-year dollar swap

-31.50

0.75

spread


Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Hugh Lawson and Richard Chang

免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務,允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容,但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限,並受以下條款與條例約束:(i)條款與條例;(ii)風險提示;(iii)完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊,僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意,我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成,也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。

所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料,僅適用於教育/資訊類用途,不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議,或是交易價格紀錄,或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。

本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容,包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接,皆爲‘按原狀’,並作爲一般市場評論所提供,而非投資建議。請理解和接受,所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容,並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性,而根據法律要求所編寫,而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊,相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。

我們運用 cookies 提供您最佳之網頁使用經驗。更改您的cookie 設定跟詳情。

風險提示:您的資金存在風險。槓桿商品並不適合所有客戶。請詳細閱讀我們的風險聲明