V-shaped recovery in European equities "implausible" for now - UBS
STOXX 600 down 0.8%
Financials top drag
Fed minutes eyed
U.S. futures tick lower
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
V-SHAPED RECOVER IN EUROPEAN EQUITIES "IMPLAUSIBLE" FOR NOW - UBS (1134 GMT)
European equities need to pause for more data to validate the V-shaped recovery currently being priced by the market, according to UBS strategists, who consider such a recovery implausible for now.
The STOXX 600 .STOXX is up 9.2% this year to 460 points, not far off a one-year high on Feb. 16.
If the recent rally turns out not to be justified, the downside could be 12% to UBS's 410 target for the STOXX 600.
One recent signal that the market is "running on fumes" is a U.S. senior loan officer survey that showed tightening lending standards and lower loan demand, the strategists wrote.
"We think it is likely that European real-economy financial conditions are tightening just as fast now. In both regions, M2 money supply is now shrinking."
They describe equities as being in the middle of a "regime change", from downturn to recovery, but that the current levels are towards the top end of such a range, which they pit as 410-460 for the STOXX 600.
Earnings weakness is what could drive equities lower going forward, and the U.S will lead the downturn, the UBS strategists add.
(Lucy Raitano)
*****
ONLY HALF THE STOXX YIELDS MORE THAN BONDS (1125 GMT)
The relentless surge in bond yields has made pursuing equity income strategies somewhat more complicated.
And this stat by BofA Global Research is quite telling: only half of the STOXX 600 .STOXX index yields more than local 10-year bonds, which is the lowest proportion since 2011.
This means investors need to be more careful than before when it comes to their dividend picks. With that in mind, BofA has set up screens with high expected dividends.
The first basket of 15 large cyclical stocks has a heavy representation (almost 50%) of banks such as Intesa Sanpaolo ISP.MI, BBVA BBVA.MC, ING INGA.AS and NatWest NWG.L.
The second one, of defensive plays, features insurers like Swiss Re SRENH.S, along with utilities like Iberdrola IBE.MC, staples like Unilever ULVR.L and drugmakers like Novartis NOVN.S.
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
FAVOUR EUROPE OVER WALL STREET, BARCLAYS SAYS (1029 GMT)
Now that the earnings season in Europe is well past its peak and it's almost established that the numbers weren't as bad as many had feared, how should investors position, given that much of the good news has arguably been priced in?
Barclays has looked into it to conclude that portfolio managers should focus on relative value, which it believes favours European equities over Wall Street, along with select value/cyclicals and banking stocks.
"As upside to global equities feels constrained now, we believe that EU equities score better than US ones on both earnings and valuations metrics, while positioning is also on their side." say Barclays strategists led by Emmanuel Cau.
"The region has been underweight in global portfolios for a long time. However, with the recent narrowing in growth prospects... and worries about European integration receding somewhat, demand for European stocks is starting to pick up".
So, that's why Barclays is keeping an overweight Europe versus the U.S.. However, even though the region should enjoy a strong relative performance, the absolute upside looks limited. Its STOXX 600 .STOXX target in fact remains at 475 points, which is just 2.4% above Monday's close.
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
A SEA OF RED AS MINERS DRAG (0917 GMT)
European stocks are a sea of red this morning, with a few less-than-stellar results weighing on the pan-regional index. A drop in mining shares is not helping either.
Basic resources .SXPP stocks are languishing near the bottom of the list, with the sector down 2.3%, weighed on by mining giants Glencore GLEN.L and Rio Tinto RIO.L which are down 2.7% and 2.6% respectively.
Real estate .S8730P .SX86P is also faring poorly, down 1.5%, while banks .SX7P are down 1.3%.
Fresenius FREG.DE shares are down 5% while Fresenius Medical Care FMEG.DE shares are 10.3% higher, as the market digests the German healthcare group's latest results and reshuffle.
BE Semiconductor BESI.AS shares meanwhile are rising 7.5% after results.
Media names .SXMP are only sector just about bucking today's downward trend, trading 0.1% higher.
(Lucy Raitano)
*****
NOT IF OR WHEN BUT HOW FAST? (0752 GMT)
Is it really good news? Probably yes, probably not.
Economies from the United States to Germany to Britain are showing an unexpected pick-up in business activity, but markets are again giving a thumbs-down to these indicators.
Just as inflation once again becomes the biggest pain point for investors after they conveniently put away such worries last month, strong growth cements the case for higher interest rates.
Fed funds futures traders are now pricing for the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate to reach 5.36% in July and end the year at 5.18%.
And financial markets now point to a 95% chance of an increase in the Bank of England's official rate next month, up from 90% early on Tuesday.
That is depressing the mood for equity traders.
Asian stock markets floated in a sea of red on Wednesday following an ugly sell-off on Wall Street.
Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields rose to 3.966%, the highest since November. The dollar and sterling strengthened on expectations of further rate hikes.
Inflation data from Germany and Italy due later on Wednesday will offer clues on price pressures.
In this risk-off environment, the stage is set for the release of the minutes of the Fed's meeting from last week.
Markets will scrutinise it for signs on how high officials project interest rates will go following recent data that showed stronger-than-expected U.S. employment and consumer prices.
Political tensions are also heating up as President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin spar verbally, presenting starkly different views of the world and the Ukraine war.
China said on Wednesday that its top diplomat, Wang Yi, met Russia's security chief and both sides agreed that peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region should be resolutely upheld, and opposed the introduction of a Cold War "mentality".
On the corporate front, Bloomberg News reported that sovereign wealth fund Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is among the parties considering a bid for a 34% stake in Associated British Ports that could be valued at about 2 billion pounds or more.
And finally, consulting giant McKinsey & Co, which is known for advising businesses on a variety of projects including layoffs, plans to cut about 2,000 jobs, in one of its biggest round of layoffs, Bloomberg News reported.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
European economic data: German and Italian Jan inflation, Germany Feb Ifo survey
European results: Iberdrola, Lloyds, Telefonica
U.S. results: eBay, Nvidia
U.S. Fed releases minutes from Jan meeting
(Anshuman Daga)
*****
EUROPEAN FUTURES HEAD LOWER (0734 GMT)
European futures are heading lower this morning, with those on the STOXX 50 .STXEc1, DAX FDXc1 and FTSE FFIc1 all down 0.3%-0.4%. U.S. futures are up by a marginal 0.1%.
The day has already kicked off with the release of Germany's latest inflation, which showed a rise of 9.2% on the year in January and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%. Italy will follow suit with CPIs at 0900 GMT.
At the open, eyes will be on Lloyds LLOY.L, after the UK lender reported flat annual profit for 2022 on Wednesday.
In more positive news, carmaker Stellantis STLAM.MI said on Wednesday operating profit grew 17% in the second half of last year, and Europe's biggest utility Iberdrola IBE.MC expects net profit to grow this year.
Post-European close, traders will be pouring over newly released minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting for hints over how the central bank's tricky task is going.
(Lucy Raitano)
*****
Duel of the Rateshttps://tmsnrt.rs/3xIypK4
Europe vs Wall Sthttps://tmsnrt.rs/3YUglbV
STOXX div yield above bond yieldhttps://tmsnrt.rs/3IKmrFV
免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務,允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容,但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限,並受以下條款與條例約束:(i)條款與條例;(ii)風險提示;(iii)完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊,僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意,我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成,也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。
所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料,僅適用於教育/資訊類用途,不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議,或是交易價格紀錄,或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。
本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容,包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接,皆爲‘按原狀’,並作爲一般市場評論所提供,而非投資建議。請理解和接受,所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容,並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性,而根據法律要求所編寫,而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊,相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。