War, peace, inflation

A look at the day ahead in markets from Sujata Rao. Feb 16 was when Russia was meant to invade Ukraine, according to the White House, but Moscow's signals that it was pulling back some troops massed at Ukraine's borders lifted Wall Street on Tuesday and fuelled a selloff in safe-haven Treasuries and German Bunds.

Market gains are extending into Wednesday -- Japan's Nikkei rose 2.2% and European bourses open higher, yet U.S. equity futures show renewed signs of caution.

There are, of course, other ways of waging war; Ukraine blamed Russia for a series of cyber attacks that hit it on Tuesday. And note, Russia's parliament asked President Putin to recognise two Moscow-backed eastern Ukrainian breakaway regions as independent .

Economic data releases and central banks are also occupying markets. Those hoping for signs of inflation peaking will have been dismayed by the latest UK and U.S. readings. British consumer prices rose at the fastest annual pace in nearly 30 years last month, edging up from December

That comes a day after Tuesday's U.S. data showed core factory gate inflation -- the cost for producers after stripping out food and energy -- posting its biggest gain in a year.

The prospect of front-loaded, aggressive rate hikes has dramatically flattened bond curves, with the gap between two-year and 10-year UK gilt yields a whisker off turning negative -- the so-called inversion that often portends an economic slump.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened back on Tuesday as receding war fears lifted 10-year yields, but a day earlier it was the narrowest since mid-2020. For some, the state of the curve is a sign that central banks have fallen behind in their inflation fight and must act faster with policy tightening to catch up.

So all eyes now on minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's last meeting. They could show whether policymakers will lean towards a larger half-point rate rise at its March meeting, or whether they favour moving faster with selling the Fed's bond holdings to tighten financial conditions.

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Wednesday: -China's inflation slows, leaving room for policy easing -ECB's Schnabel, Villeroy eye end of stimulus scheme -NATO defence ministers meet in Brussels for two-day summit -U.S. retail sales/industrial production/inventories -U.S. Treasury 20-year bond auction -Fed minutes from Jan. 25-26 meeting -U.S. earnings: Kraft Heinz, Cisco, AIG, Nvidia, Marathon European earnings: Ahold, Alcom, Clariant, EDP, Standard Chartered, Heineken, Carrefour, Reckit Benckiser

Inflation Link
Treasury yield curve Link

Reporting by Sujata Rao; editing by Karin Strohecker

免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務,允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容,但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限,並受以下條款與條例約束:(i)條款與條例;(ii)風險提示;(iii)完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊,僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意,我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成,也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。


本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容,包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接,皆爲‘按原狀’,並作爲一般市場評論所提供,而非投資建議。請理解和接受,所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容,並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性,而根據法律要求所編寫,而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊,相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。

我們運用 cookies 提供您最佳之網頁使用經驗。更改您的cookie 設定跟詳情。