What a difference a week can make!
Main U.S. indexes modestly green; Dow out front, up ~0.5%
Sep U Mich sentiment prelim 69.0 vs 68.5 estimate
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.8%
Dollar, bitcoin dip; gold up; crude up >1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges down to ~3.66%
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WHAT A DIFFERENCE A WEEK CAN MAKE!
The main U.S. indexes are modestly higher early on Friday as investors reevaluate the possibility of a bigger interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.
According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed slashes rates by 50 basis points has jumped to around 47% from 28% on Thursday. The chance of a 25-bp cut has fallen to 53% from 72% on Thursday.
Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley said there was a strong case for a 50-bp interest rate cut. Separate media reports calling the decision "a close call" also added to the uncertainty.
In any event, after being thrashed last week, the main indexes are now on track for big weekly gains. In fact, the Nasdaq composite .IXIC, which slid about 5.8% last week, while suffering its biggest weekly decline since January 2022, is up around 5.6% so far this week, putting it on track for its biggest weekly gain since November 2023.
With the strength, the S&P 500 index .SPX is now down less than 1% from its record highs. The Dow .DJI is only down around 0.75% from its record levels. The Nasdaq is still down around 5.5% from its record highs.
Here is a snapshot of where markets stood just shortly after 1000 EDT/1400 GMT:
(Terence Gabriel)
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FOR FRIDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
HAVE GRAINS REACHED FERTILE GROUND ON THE CHARTS? - CLICK HERE
THE MACRO OUTLOOK MARKET DIVIDE - CLICK HERE
IS THE ECB FALLING BEHIND THE CURVE? - CLICK HERE
WHY NOT 50? - CLICK HERE
STOXX 600 HEADS FOR WEEKLY GAIN - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN FUTURES EDGE UP ON RATE CUT BETS - CLICK HERE
SUPER-SIZED FED CUT CLIMBS BACK ON THE TABLE - CLICK HERE
earlytrade09132024 https://tmsnrt.rs/3XsVmNI
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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