Zloty betters peers as inflation reading sparks rate hike expectations



By Anita Komuves

BUDAPEST, July 30 (Reuters) - The Polish zloty gained on Friday, outperforming its peers, as a higher-than-expected flash inflation reading raised expectations of tightening in the country where policymakers so far resisted normalising rates.

The zloty EURPLN= firmed 0.23% to 4.5670 per euro as flash CPI data came in at 5% year-on-year in July, above expectations, rising from 4.4% year-on-year in June.

"Inflation is much higher than expected, which will push up expectations of policy normalisation," an FX trader in Warsaw said.

"However, the market reaction is muted and the zloty is only slightly stronger because we have to wait until November for a possible rate hike decision."

The Polish central bank has not raised rates yet, even as its counterparts in Hungary and the Czech Republic tightened policy in June to fight inflation as economies had started rebounding from pandemic lows.

The Hungarian central bank delivered its second rate hike on Tuesday and said that it would take "firm steps" on a monthly basis.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= weakened in the morning but recouped losses and was up 0.16% at 357.00 per euro.

"The forint found its way back to the road of strengthening, and I expect this to continue next week," a Budapest-based FX trader said.

Besides Tuesday's 30-basis-point rate hike, the currency is also helped by the U.S. Federal Reserve's communication, the trader said.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday indicated that the central bank would wait further to taper stimulus, weakening the dollar and boosting CEE currencies in the previous session, with the Hungarian forint gaining the most.

The crown EURCZK= edged down 0.03% to trade at 25.485 versus the common currency.

Elsewhere, the Czech economy expanded by 0.6% in the second quarter versus the previous three months, lower than expected, data showed on Friday. On a year-on-year basis, the economy grew by 7.8% in real terms.

Stock markets were mixed, with Warsaw .WIG20 easing 0.43% and Budapest .BUX sliding 0.35 while Prague .PX gained 0.13%.

CEE

SNAPSHO AT

MARKETS T

1125 CET

CURRENC

IES

Latest Previous Daily

Change

bid

close

change in 2021 EURCZK= Czech

<EURCZK= 25.4850 25.4780 -0.03% +2.92%

crown

>

EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 357.000 357.5700 +0.16% +1.60%

forint >

0

EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.5670

4.5776 +0.23% -0.17%

zloty

>

EURRON= Romania <EURRON= 4.9215

4.9204 -0.02% -1.15%

n leu

>

EURHRK= Croatia <EURHRK= 7.5035

7.5065 +0.04% +0.59%

n kuna >

EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.500 117.5600 +0.05% +0.06%

dinar

>

0

Note:

calculated from

1800

daily

CET

change

Latest Previous Daily

Change

close

change in 2021 .PX

Prague

.PX

1206.00 1204.440 +0.13% +17.41

0

% .BUX

Budapes .BUX

48142.1 48286.06 -0.30% +14.33

t

7

% .WIG20 Warsaw

.WIG20 2255.87 2265.69 -0.43% +13.70

% .BETI

Buchare .BETI

11874.8 11874.76 +0.00% +21.10

st

4

% .SBITOP Ljublja <.SBITOP 1163.32 1163.00 +0.03% +29.14

na

>

% .CRBEX Zagreb

.CRBEX 1949.25 1953.65 -0.23% +12.07

% .BELEX1 Belgrad <.BELEX1 775.66

775.66 +0.00% +3.61% 5

e

5>

.SOFIX Sofia

.SOFIX

570.71

570.87 -0.03% +27.52

%

Yield

Yield

Spread Daily

(bid)

change

vs Bund change

in

Czech

spread

Republi

c

CZ2YT=R

<CZ2YT=R 1.4280 -0.0030 +218bp

+0bps R

2-year R>

s CZ5YT=R

<CZ5YT=R 1.5950 -0.0370 +233bp

-4bps R

5-year R>

s CZ10YT=

<CZ10YT= 1.7120 -0.0090 +216bp

-2bps RR

10-year RR>

s

Poland

PL2YT=R

<PL2YT=R 0.3980 -0.0380 +115bp

-4bps R

2-year R>

s PL5YT=R

<PL5YT=R 1.1260

0.0370 +186bp

+3bps R

5-year R>

s PL10YT=

<PL10YT= 1.7800

0.0500 +222bp

+4bps RR

10-year RR>

s

FORWARD

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M

interba

nk

Czech

CZKFRA

1.30

1.69

1.93

0.73

Rep

<PRIBOR=

>

Hungary HUFFRA

1.97

2.13

2.24

1.35

BUBOR=

Poland

PLNFRA

0.36

0.55

0.69

0.21

WIBOR=

Note:

are for ask

FRA

prices

quotes

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