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GBPUSD


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Market Comment – Wall Street extends record streak, gold joins in

Rate cut and soft landing bets propel US equities to new highs Gold also sets a new record as US yields sink despite Trump risks Pound and kiwi edge up on slight upside surprises in CPI data US stocks brace for soft landing Optimism that the Fed is well placed to engineer a soft landing by cutting rates soon continues to fuel risk appetite on Wall Street, even as equity markets globally struggle against the prospect of Trump 2.0. Worries that a second Trump presidency will lead to
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD hits fresh 1-year high

GBPUSD jumps to fresh 1-year high after UK CPI surprises slightly higher Technical indicators point to overbought conditions following steep rally UK employment figures next on the agenda due on Thursday 06:00 GMT   The UK CPI inflation data on Wednesday gave GBPUSD a slight boost as consumer prices grew by 2.0% instead of the expected 1.9%.
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD turns red after upbeat US retail sales

GBPUSD at risk of losing power below 1.2960 Technical indicators send overbought signals UK CPI inflation due on Wednesday at 06:00 GMT   GBPUSD switched to losses after US core retail sales displayed a strong monthly growth in June, beating analysts’ expectations for a pullback. The pair slipped back below the 1.2960 support region, increasing the risk for a bearish continuation ahead of Wednesday’s UK CPI data as both the RSI and the stochastic oscillator are flagging o
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Higher market volatility led by yen, gold and equities – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low despite weekend’s events Volatility in commodities jumps, apart from oil Stock indices experience stronger volatility, decoupling from Bitcoin Euro/dollar volatility remains very low despite last week’s weaker CPI report and the weekend’s gun attack on the Republican Presidential candidate. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the BoJ is rumoured to have intervened last week in dollar/yen, ahead of the
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold

EURUSD tests June's peak as ECB rate decision looms GBPUSD pauses impressive rally near 1.3000 ahead of CPI data Gold resumes weak momentum after closing above 2,400   US retail sales --> Gold It was a shocking weekend of a failed assassination attempt against Donald Trump, which caused a heated moment in the US political landscape.
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Bullish pound eyes $1.30 ahead of UK inflation test – Preview

June CPI numbers the highlight of this week’s UK data flurry Could the Bank of England cut interest rates next month? Pound undeterred as it extends July gains Job stats and retail sales to follow Wednesday’s CPI report (06:00 GMT) On target Inflation in the UK peaked much higher than in other major economies during the height of the energy crisis in 2022. Logic would therefore dictate that it would take longer to come down, and that is exactly what happened in 2023, to t
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A September Fed rate cut could lead to an easing spree during end-2024

Market prices in at least two rate cuts from Fed ECB, BoE expected to follow suit despite divergent economic conditions SNB and BoC could ease further; RBNZ possibly close to a summer rate cut BoJ and RBA could surprise with rate hikes during 2024 We are halfway into 2024 and the countdown for this year’s key event, the US presidential election, has already started.
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Week Ahead – ECB set to hold rates, plethora of data on the way

ECB is not expected to cut in July but will it signal one for next meeting? Retail sales will be the main highlight in the United States UK CPI report will be vital for BoE’s August decision China GDP data to kickstart busy week ECB meets amid sticky inflation The European Central Bank concludes its two-day policy meeting on Thursday but no change in interest rates is anticipated after trimming them by 25 basis points at last month’s gathering.
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD battles with 1.2860-1.2890 area

GBPUSD shows some improvement in near term 200-week SMA lies near the current high GBPUSD is facing a notable bullish movement after the bounce off the 1.2610 support level, challenging again the 1.2860-1.2890 area, where the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) also lies. According to technical oscillators, the stochastic is heading upwards above the 80 level, creating a bullish crossover within its %K and %D lines.
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Market Comment – Wounded dollar awaits inflation numbers

Powell’s testimony dents the dollar US CPI data could deepen the wounds Pound gains as BoE’s Pill dampens August cut bets Wall Street at new highs, gold gains as well Dollar softens ahead of CPI data The US dollar drifted south against most of its major peers on Wednesday, gaining some ground only against the yen, the franc, and the kiwi.
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UK data eyed as pound celebrates Labour win – Preview

Monthly GDP and production figures for June on tap Strong data might hurt August rate cut expectations Pound flirts with $1.28 ahead of Thursday’s release (06:00 GMT) Uptick in GDP expected The UK economy got off to a solid start this year, emerging strongly from a technical recession in the second half of 2023. GDP grew by an impressive 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in the January-March period.
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD advances towards 2024 highs

GBPUSD rebounds from its 50-day SMA The price jumps to its highest since June 12 Momentum indicators are tilted to the upside GBPUSD has been slowly gaining ground following its bounce off the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in late June. Moreover, the pair has entered a range that has previously rejected further advances during the past year, thus traders should be careful not to get overly optimistic.
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Lower FX volatility as equities appear agitated – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility drops aggressively Volatility in commodities increases a tad, apart from oil S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indices’ volatility jumps Euro/dollar volatility has eased further over the past week as the market is feeling more relaxed after Le Pen’s far-right party failed spectacularly to win the highest number of seats in the second round of the French parliamentary election.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, GBPUSD, NZDUSD

USDJPY faces minor injuries after higher US jobless rate; Powell's testimony next on the agenda GBPUSD surprasses key obstacle as UK gets new government; monthly GDP data on the agenda NZDUSD waits for RBNZ rate decision; bullish outlook above 0.6188-0.6200   Fed chairman to testify on economy --> USDJPY US employment increased at a surprisingly solid pace of 206k on Friday, beating analysts’ forecasts of 190k jobs, but a faster-than-expected rise in the unemplo
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Week Ahead – Round two of French elections, Powell testimony and US CPI

French parties race to block Le Pen’s RN Powell testifies before Senate Banking Committee US CPI data to shake Fed rate cut bets RBNZ to leave OCR untouched, focus on language   Euro traders keep gaze locked on French election Traders will be sitting on the edge of their seats on Sunday, in anticipation of Monday’s open and what market impact the second round of the French election will have.
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Market Comment – Spotlight on NFP as dollar sinks; pound unmoved by Labour landslide

Dollar slips further ahead of crucial US jobs report Pound marginally higher as Labour crush the Tories in UK election Equities set to end week on a high note, Bitcoin keeps slumping Stakes are high as markets brace for soft NFP After a bit of a wobble last week, stock markets around the world are back in bullish mode following the weak ISM surveys for both manufacturing and services that bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in September.
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Midweek Technical Look – Gold, GBPUSD, EURUSD

Gold cheers on weaker business data, but a break above 2,368 is still needed GBPUSD retains positive momentum as the UK election kicks off; eyes on 1.2770 EURUSD resumes recovery mode; aims for a close above 200-SMA
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Market Comment – Dollar skids on ISM services dip, pound steady as UK votes

ISM services PMI points to unexpected contraction in June Treasury yields and dollar take a dive, but Wall Street rallies Pound in bullish mode as UK goes to the polls amid broader risk appetite September rate cut seen more likely Expectations of a September rate cut got another boost on Wednesday after the ISM services PMI fell into contractionary territory, adding to the growing signs of a slowing US economy.
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Could the post-UK elections market moves resemble 1997 and 2010?

Thursday's UK elections expected to bring political change Similar developments in both 1997 and 2010 weighed on the pound History points to a significant easing in pound volatility across the board Recent FTSE 100 performance matches the 2015 pre-election moves General election in sight The UK general election will be held this Thursday, July 4, the day that the US will be celebrating its 248th anniversary from the adoption of the Declaration of Independence.
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Yen volatility remains high as equities appear calmer – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility jumps after French elections Volatility in commodities eases, apart from oil Stock indices’ volatility falls ahead of key data releases Euro/dollar volatility has eased over the past week as the market is breathing slightly easier following Sunday’s French elections result. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses remains extremely high as market participants continue to provoke the BoJ by pushing dollar/yen above the level that led to the end-April
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