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EURCHF bounces off 4-month low of 0.9476 But the 200-day SMA curbs the pair’s rebound Momentum indicators improve but still negatively tilted   EURCHF has been in a steep decline since the beginning of June, shedding almost half of its 2024 gains. In the near term, although the pair found its feet at the four-month low of 0.9476, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) has prevented further advances for now.
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Could Tokyo CPI make the July BoJ meeting a live one? – Preview

BoJ meeting minutes summary keep the door open to a July rate hike Key data due this week, especially Friday’s Tokyo CPI Retail sales data to show consumer appetite Yen remains under pressure as officials avoid verbal intervention The BoJ is still willing to hike rates On June 14, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged and failed to surprise the market.
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Technical Analysis – USDJPY retreats after hitting 2-month high

USDJPY eases near 161.8% Fibonacci extension RSI and stochastic look overbought USDJPY is declining from a fresh two-month high of 159.91, failing to test the 160.00 psychological number once again. The price is currently testing the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the down leg from 151.95 to 140.20 at 159.13, with the next support coming from the 157.70 level and the long-term uptrend line at 156.70. A drop beneath the diagonal would open the way for a downside correction towar
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Besides commodities, volatility is heightened across the board - Volatility Watch

Yen crosses are very volatile as they approach intervention levels Volatility is extremely low in the commodity sphere US and global equities exhibit volatility jump, Bitcoin follows suit Volatility in yen pairs has been elevated for the past few days as they have been trading within breathing distance from the levels that Japanese authorities were willing to defend in the recent past.
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Technical Analysis – CADJPY aims for April’s multi-year high

CADJPY surpasses key resistance levels, but enters overbought zone Next resistance at 117.93; support at 115.80-116.00 Canadian CPI inflation due for release at 12:30 GMT   CADJPY is in the third consecutive week of gains, having experienced an impressive rally to almost reach the 117.00 round level following the rebound near the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 113.20. The bulls accelerated successfully above April’s closing price of 115.78 last Friday, surpassing the co
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD

US Core PCE index could affect EURUSD’s performance Canadian CPI expected to fall; USDCAD still falling AUDUSD may remain in range after Australian CPI US Core PCE price index --> EURUSD The main focus for traders this week will be the US core PCE price index for May, which is coming out on Friday. Also, the personal income and spending data and the final GDP figure will be released this week.
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Market Comment – Busier calendar could support the dollar  

Richer US data calendar and Fedspeak today US stocks in the red again; uptrend intact Key inflation reports from both Canada and Australia Yen shows signs of life but still close to intervention level Dollar remains on the back foot The US dollar remains under pressure against the euro despite the relatively quiet newsflow. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee maintained his relatively dovish stance yesterday with the market focusing more on comments from San Francisco Fed Preside
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Technical Analysis – Gold reverses back below 50-day SMA

Gold retreats after unsuccessful break above 50-day SMA The price extends its structure of lower highs Momentum indicators turn bearish Gold had been in a steady recovery from its recent one-month low, which led to the price closing above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) last Thursday. Despite the violation of that crucial hurdle, bullion reversed back lower after failing to jump above the upper end of the Ichimoku cloud.
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Nvidia’s stock drifts lower after peaking in the 140 area Technical signals confirm overbought conditions; next support at 126 Long-term outlook positive above 109.85   Nvidia’s stock closed Thursday’s session sharply lower at 130.24 after stretching its record rally to 140.29. There was no serious headwind behind the decline, which feeds speculation that traders probably decided to lock some profits near the 140 psychological mark.
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Bitcoin falls to 1-month low, diverging from stocks – Crypto News

Bitcoin drops to its lowest level since May 15 Cryptos’correlation with equities has weakened lately On Thursday,spot Bitcoin ETF debuted in Australia   Bitcoin slides below $65,000 Cryptocurrencies have come under selling pressure in the past month, with Bitcoin dropping to a fresh one-month bottom on Friday. The prospect of interest rates remaining higher for longer after the Fed’s latest dot-plot indicated one rate cut for the year has applied upward pressure both on the

Technical Analysis – US dollar index could retest 105.60

US dollar index holds above short-term SMAs MACD and stochastics indicate upside momentum The US dollar index bounced off the 103.60 support level and jumped above the short-term simple moving averages (SMAs), remaining within an upward sloping channel in the medium-term picture. According to technical oscillators, the MACD is standing above its trigger and zero lines, while the stochastic oscillator recorded a bullish crossover within its %K and %D lines slightly below the 80 level.
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Market Comment – Dollar headed for third weekly gains as stock rally cools

Dollar stands tall after SNB cut and BoE’s dovish hold Yen enters intervention zone as Japan’s underlying inflation falls Euro slips on weak PMIs, US PMIs next in focus Nasdaq tumbles as Nvidia hit by profit taking ahead of triple witching Fed cut hopes not enough to dent the dollar The US dollar looks set to finish the week higher, extending its winning streak to a third week.
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Technical Analysis – USDCAD bears could remain in control

USDCAD eases below 1.3700; could attract new sellers in short-term Next support could emerge within 1.3600-1.3622 territory US S&P Global PMIs, Canadian retail sales on the agenda   USDCAD has been tiptoeing to the downside for five consecutive trading days, increasing speculation that some stability could soon occur. The technical picture, however, suggests that the bears have more to accomplish.
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EURAUD continues the strong negative tendency RSI and stochastic hold in bearish territories EURAUD is plunging towards a fresh one-year low of 1.6058, posting the fourth straight red day. The pair has been developing in a bearish tendency since August 2023 with the technical oscillators confirming this view. The RSI is crossing the 30 level to the downside, while the stochastic is holding in the oversold territory.
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Week Ahead – US PCE inflation the highlight of a relatively light agenda

Core PCE inflation to test bets of two Fed rate cuts in 2024 Yen awaits BoJ Summary of Opinions, Tokyo CPI Canadian CPI data also enters the spotlight   Will PCE data confirm Fed rate cut bets? Although the Fed’s updated dot plot pointed to only one quarter-point reduction by the end of the year, the softer-than-expected CPI numbers a few hours ahead of last week’s decision did not convince market participants about officials’ intentions.
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Technical Analysis – ETHUSD bounces off 50-day SMA

ETHUSD halts retreat at the 50-day SMA Regains some ground after posting a double bottom Momentum indicators turn neutral-to-positive ETHUSD (Ethereum) experienced a strong rally in May, approaching its 2024 highs before undergoing a strong pullback. However, the latest decline appears to be on pause for now as the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has held its ground twice in the past 10 days.

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD declines after BoE’s decision

GBPUSD fails to extend above 20-day SMA Price remains beneath short-term uptrend line Momentum oscillators head south GBPUSD is falling after the BoE interest rate decision, retesting the 1.2670 support level and still standing beneath the steep uptrend line. The pair may find immediate support at the 1.2360-1.2670 region, which is also near the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2620. Even lower, the 200-day SMA, which lies near the mid-level of the longer-term trading ran
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Technical Analysis – USDCHF cheers on SNB rate cut

USDCHF rises rapidly after SNB lowers interest rates to 1.25% Oversold signals favor the bulls; more upside needed for a positive outlook   USDCHF turned swiftly up to test its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.8890 after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point for the second consecutive meeting despite some investors estimated no changes in borrowing costs.
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Midweek Technical Look – GBPJPY, Oil, US 500

GBPJPY tries to retest 16-year high WTI crude oil eases somewhat after almost 2-month high US 500 skyrockets to another record peak above 5,500
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Technical Analysis – GBPJPY is ready to re-challenge 16-year high

GBPJPY rebounds off 198.90 Stochastics and RSI show positive signals GBPJPY is heading upwards again after the selling interest in the previous week and the bounce off the 198.90 support level. The market is ready to test the 16-year high of 201.64, while even higher the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level of the down leg from 188.65 to 178.80 at 204.70 may halt bullish movements.
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