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Previews

XM Research - 3 days ago

Will the Bank of Japan hint at a July hike? – Preview

Investors see decent chance for BoJ hike in July But struggling economy complicates the policy outlook Report on bond buying sets the hawkish bar even higher The Bank decides on Friday at 03:00 GMT   Obstacles in the road for the next BoJ hike At its latest gathering on April 26, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to keep the range for its benchmark rate unchanged between 0% and 0.1% as was widely expected.
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XM Research - 3 days ago

Chinese CPI expected to tick up Australian employment data may take aussie higher China CPI is due on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT Australia’s jobs data will follow on Thursday at 01:30 GMT RBA may cut rates during 2024 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is still considered to be one of the most hawkish among the main world central banks, despite the fact that the weaker-than-expected GDP figures for the first quarter out of Australia diminished bets about a rate hike. In
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XM Research - 3 days ago

Fed pivot less likely after strong NFP, focus on CPI report and dot plot – Preview

A dovish pivot by the Fed is looking less likely at the June meeting Will Fed officials flag two or just one rate cut after strong jobs data? CPI report will also be crucial on Wednesday (12:30 GMT) Statement due at 18:00 GMT will be followed by press conference at 18:30 GMT One step forward, two steps back After a run of consistently hot data on inflation and the economy all year, it briefly seemed like the tide was turning for early rate cut hopes.
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XM Research - 4 days ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, US dollar index, USDJPY

Euro area elections drives EURUSD sharply lower Fed decision and US inflation would have strong impact at US dollar index Will BoJ decision affect USDJPY? Euro area elections --> EURUSD The European elections resulted in significant setbacks for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron. The euro had a significant decline on Monday due to political uncertainty caused by French President Emmanuel Macron's announcement of a sudden legislative electio
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XM Research - 4 days ago

BoE stays quiet but data could speak volumes – Preview

BoE stuck between strong US data and the ECB rate cut Labour market data could support August rate cut expectations All eyes on average earnings growth Could the pound maintain its recent gains?  BoE remains on the sidelines While the ECB announced its first rate cut since 2019 and the Fed is preparing for Wednesday’s gathering, the Bank of England has been forced to stay on the sidelines.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Week Ahead – Fed and BoJ decide on monetary policy

US CPI data and Fed to determine the dollar’s fate Will the BoJ signal that another rate hike is looming? Pound traders await UK employment and GDP numbers RBA hike bets shrink ahead of AU jobs and China CPI data   Mind the dots With US inflation resuming its downtrend in April and the ISM manufacturing PMI for May disappointing, investors remained convinced that the Fed will begin lowering interest rates at some point this year.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Canada’s unemployment rate likely to rise to new 2-year high BoC on Wednesday expects to cut rates Loonie gains some ground ahead of important releases Employment report due on Friday at 12:30 GMT The focus of considerable attention has been on the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve as their battle to reduce interest rates approaches its peak.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Dollar traders lock gaze on NFP report – Preview

Fed sticks to ‘higher for longer’ mentality PMIs pose downside risks to nonfarm payrolls But point to sticky wage growth The data comes out on Friday, at 12:30 GMT US inflation slows but Fed signals patience Although the latest CPI data revealed that inflation in the US has resumed its downtrend, Fed officials have been continuously signaling patience about when they may start lowering interest rates, with some of the ultra-hawks, like Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashka
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCAD

USDJPY continues to trade with resilience near April’s bar as forecasts point to robust US jobs data EURUSD holds within caution area as the ECB prepares to cut interest rates USDCAD directionless despite a probable rate cut in Canada this week   Nonfarm payrolls, ISM business PMIs --> USDJPY The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates before September according to futures markets, and although the wolves of Wall Street are not fond of this scenario, the US dollar ca
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Bank of Canada edges closer to rate cut but will it be in June? – Preview

Canadian inflation has been moving in right direction this year Investors have assigned a more than 80% probability of a June cut But will the BoC move before the Fed; decision is due Wednesday, 13:45 GMT The race to cut may be reaching the final hurdle As the race to cut rates reaches fever pitch, much of the attention has been centred on the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

ECB to make the first move – Preview

ECB meets on Thursday; a rate cut is expected Market will look for hints of back-to-back rate cuts A dovish rate cut could match expectations and push euro/dollar lower Decision will be announced on Thursday 12:15 GMT, press conference at 12:45 GMT A 25bps rate cut is expected On Thursday, the ECB will hold its fourth rate-setting meeting for 2024. The rhetoric from ECB officials since the April 11 gathering leaves little doubt about the outcome.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Week Ahead – ECB rate cut might get eclipsed by BoC surprise and NFP report

ECB set to slash rates on Thursday, focus on forward guidance But will the BoC take the lead when it meets on Wednesday? US jobs report eyed on Friday as Fed unyielding on cuts OPEC+ might extend some output reductions into 2025 ECB poised to cut rates, but what’s next? The path by central banks to lower borrowing costs has been far from smooth, but it seems that the European Central Bank will be among the first to reach its desired destination.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Will core PCE inflation spur a less hawkish Fed? – Preview

Hopes that PCE inflation will point to some further moderation But would that be enough for the Fed to ease its hawkish stance? US dollar drifts lower ahead of the crucial data due Friday, 12:30 GMT The stakes are high as Fed meeting approaches After months of hotter-than-expected inflation prints, there was finally some good news in the latest CPI report.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Euro area inflation unlikely to change ECB’s outlook – Preview

ECB June rate move looks like a done deal May inflation could open the door to a July rate cut Euro could benefit from a stronger CPI print German CPI on Wednesday, eurozone report on Friday at 09:00 GMT Busy calendar, inflation stands out With the market counting down to next week’s ECB meeting, the preliminary inflation report for May will be published this week.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, AUDUSD

US Core PCE price index may boost USDJPY to surpass 156.00 Eurozone preliminary CPI attracts traders’ attention with EURUSD standing above 1.0800 Australia monthly CPI indicator may be a breath for AUDUSD US Core PCE price index --> USDJPY                                                                          Investors may turn their focus to the US core PCE price index for April on Friday, which is th
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Week Ahead – US PCE inflation and Eurozone CPI data enter the spotlight

Dollar traders lock gaze on core PCE index Eurozone CPIs in focus as June cut looms Tokyo CPIs may complicate BoJ’s policy plans Aussie awaits Australian CPIs and Chinese PMIs   Will PCE data break the “higher for longer” mantra? The US dollar stabilized this week, recovering a small portion of the losses it posted after the CPI data revealed that US inflation resumed its downtrend in April.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

How will the Eurozone PMIs impact ECB expectations? – Preview

Eurozone economy has been improving in 2024 But investors still anticipate an ECB rate cut in June The flash PMIs could impact bets beyond that meeting The data comes out on Thursday at 08:00 GMT   ECB signals confidence in lowering rates At their latest gathering, ECB officials decided to keep interest rates unchanged as expected but they sent clearer signals that they may start lowering them soon.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, NZDUSD, GBPUSD

USDJPY’s recent bullish turn looks promising ahead of FOMC minutes NZDUSD takes a breather after meaningful weekly gain; RBNZ decision looms GBPUSD examines critical resistance zone amid busy data week FOMC meeting minutes, S&P Global PMIs --> USDJPY Despite surprising stagnation in April’s retail sales data and a slight easing of CPI inflation last week, the Fed is unlikely to reduce interest rates before September.
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Will UK inflation corroborate a June BoE rate cut? - Preview

Investors assign 60% chance for a June rate cut by the BoE UK CPI data to reveal whether inflation hit the BoE’s target But PMIs imply some upside risks The data is scheduled for Wednesday at 06:00 GMT   BoE appears more dovish than expected While a few weeks ago investors were convinced that the European Central Bank (ECB) may be the first major central bank to start lowering interest rates, the latest developments seem to have somewhat mixed up the picture instead of clear
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Could RBNZ support kiwi’s recent strength? – Preview

RBNZ meets on Wednesday, no rate change expected Quarterly forecasts and press statement will be closely scrutinized Press conference to gain interest if RBNZ turns dovish Kiwi’s recent run against the dollar could be under threat Third RBNZ meeting in 2024 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday at 02:00 GMT with the press conference following one hour later.
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