The week in economic indicators: A quarter-end preview
Dow up ~0.7%, S&P 500 ~flat, Nasdaq down ~0.7%
Energy leads S&P 500 sector gainers; Tech weakest group
Dollar off; gold up; crude up ~1%; bitcoin down >5%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~flat at ~4.26%
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THE WEEK IN ECONOMIC INDICATORS: A QUARTER-END PREVIEW
The last trading week in June is off to a quiet start, economically speaking.
But it's back-end loaded with some potential game-changers.
TUESDAY
The Conference Board is expected to release its June Consumer Confidence report, which is seen dipping two points to a nice round reading of 100.
Increasingly, the "jobs hard to find" series is pulling more focus as investors scan the labor market for emerging signs of softness, which could prompt a sooner-than-expected rate cut pivot from Powell & Co.
Case-Shiller will issue its home price growth data for April. While the 20-city composite is expected to cool down to 7.0% from 7.4% year-over-year, rising home prices as a result of tight inventories amid lofty mortgage rates are putting upward pressure on shelter prices, one of the stickier aspects of inflation.
WEDNESDAY
The Mortgage Bankers Association and the Commerce Department offer additional housing market data on hump day, with weekly home loan demand, the average 30-year fixed contract rate and the sales of newly constructed U.S. homes in focus.
THURSDAY
A data downpour is in the forecast.
A busy Commerce Department will issue its third and final take on first-quarter GDP, last month's new orders for durable goods, and advance readings for May goods trade balance and wholesale inventories.
Spending on durable goods, particularly core capital goods which is considered a harbinger of corporate capex, has been strained of late amid high interest rates.
Analysts expect Q1 GDP to hold firm at 1.3% and durable goods to turn south, dipping 0.1%.
The Labor Department weekly claims data is projected to show initial claims moving sideways at 236,000.
The National Association of Realtors is due to provide the week's final look at the housing market with its May Pending Home Sales print.
Consensus calls for a modest 2.5% rebound on the tail of April's 7.7% drop.
FRIDAY
Coinciding with the last trading day of the week, month and quarter, the week's main event takes the form of the Commerce Department's broad-ranging and closely scrutinized Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for May.
Both income and spending are seen gaining a bit of steam, but it's the PCE price index - the Fed's pet inflation yardstick - that will demand the most scrutiny.
Economists polled by Reuters expect headline PCE to remain unchanged on a monthly basis, and cool down by 10 basis points to 2.6% year-over-year.
Core PCE, which disregards volatile food and energy prices, is seen delivering monthly and annual readings of 0.1% and 2.6%, respectively, both cooler than the April snapshot.
And both would be well within one percentage point of the Fed's average annual 2% inflation target.
(Stephen Culp)
*****
FOR MONDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKET POSTS:
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FOREIGN DEMAND, POWERED BY CHIPS, RECOVERING DESPITE STRONG DOLLAR - CLICK HERE
U.S. INDEXES GAIN, BUT TECH, CHIPS DRAG - CLICK HERE
MARKET FOCUS SHIFTING TO GROWTH FROM INFLATION - CLICK HERE
S&P 500 INDEX: HITTING A WALL? - CLICK HERE
TWITCHY FX TRADERS ARE BACK ON YEN WATCH - CLICK HERE
GOOD ENTRY POINT TO BUY EU EQUITIES IN H2? - CLICK HERE
BARCLAYS MODEL POINTS TO MONTH-END DOLLAR SELLING - CLICK HERE
AU REVOIR, FRENCH EXPECTIONALISM - CLICK HERE
DRIVE TIME - CLICK HERE
CAUTIOUSLY HIGHER - CLICK HERE
ON ALERT FOR YEN INTERVENTION, US INFLATION - CLICK HERE
Consumer confidence jobs hard to find vs unemployment rate https://reut.rs/4ccuO9P
GDP consumer contribution https://reut.rs/3KZsnv2
Inflation gauges https://reut.rs/3xlaIuV
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