US natgas prices fall 3% on forecasts for less demand, storage oversupply
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
May 1 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% on Wednesday on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expectedand an ongoing massive oversupply of gas in storage.
Analysts said stockpiles were around 35% above normal levels for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Wednesday's price decline came despite a continued drop in output.
U.S. gas production has dropped by around 11% so far in 2024 as several energy firms, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.
EQT is currently the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.9 cents, or 3.0%, to settle at $1.932 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 97.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in April, down from 100.9 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 2.9 bcfd over the past seven days to a preliminary 15-week low of 94.6 bcfd on Wednesday.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 11 before turning near normal from May 12-16.
LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would ease from 91.5 bcfd this week to 91.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to an average of 11.9 bcfd in April, down from 13.1 bcfd in March due mostly to ongoing outages at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to fall from 12.8 bcfd on Tuesday to a preliminary 11.9 bcfd on Wednesday on signs of a reduction at Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Corpus Christi facility inTexas.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine.
Gas was trading around $9 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and $10 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1. NG/EU
Week ended Apr 26 Forecast | Week ended Apr 19 Actual | Year ago Apr 26 | Five-year average Apr 26 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +55 | +92 | +62 | +72 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,480 | 2,425 | 2,048 | 1,842 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 34.6% | 37.0% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 1.94 | 1.99 | 2.30 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 8.91 | 9.09 | 9.97 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 10.34 | 10.21 | 10.45 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 56 | 56 | 89 | 96 | 86 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 80 | 81 | 59 | 59 | 64 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 136 | 137 | 148 | 155 | 150 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 97.0 | 96.4 | 96.6 | 103.1 | 94.4 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 7.5 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 104.1 | 103.3 | 102.9 | 111.3 | 101.9 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.8 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 5.6 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 11.7 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 8.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 7.8 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 5.8 |
U.S. Residential | 10.1 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 6.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 28.6 | 30.3 | 31.5 | 29.1 | 28.4 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.3 | 21.8 | 21.7 | 22.0 | 21.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 76.9 | 71.1 | 71.2 | 74.3 | 69.4 |
Total U.S. Demand | 97.4 | 91.5 | 91.3 | 95.9 | 86.2 |
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 79 | 80 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 80 | 80 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 81 | 82 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended May 3 | Week ended Apr 26 | Week ended Apr 19 | Week ended Apr 12 | Week ended Apr 5 | |
Wind | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
Solar | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 39 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 38 |
Coal | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Nuclear | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.68 | 1.55 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.48 | 1.41 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.24 | 2.08 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.43 | 1.36 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.47 | 1.36 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.71 | 1.56 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.51 | 1.61 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.11 | 0.88 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.91 | 0.68 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 29.00 | 28.00 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 33.50 | 39.50 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 15.75 | 27.75 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 57.00 | 59.67 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 2.25 | 10.75 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 2.25 | 6.75 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Philippa Fletcher and Nick Zieminski
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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