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US natgas prices fall 3% on forecasts for less demand, storage oversupply



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Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

May 1 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% on Wednesday on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expectedand an ongoing massive oversupply of gas in storage.

Analysts said stockpiles were around 35% above normal levels for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Wednesday's price decline came despite a continued drop in output.

U.S. gas production has dropped by around 11% so far in 2024 as several energy firms, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.

EQT is currently the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.9 cents, or 3.0%, to settle at $1.932 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 97.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in April, down from 100.9 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 2.9 bcfd over the past seven days to a preliminary 15-week low of 94.6 bcfd on Wednesday.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 11 before turning near normal from May 12-16.

LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would ease from 91.5 bcfd this week to 91.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to an average of 11.9 bcfd in April, down from 13.1 bcfd in March due mostly to ongoing outages at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to fall from 12.8 bcfd on Tuesday to a preliminary 11.9 bcfd on Wednesday on signs of a reduction at Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Corpus Christi facility inTexas.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine.

Gas was trading around $9 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and $10 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1. NG/EU

Week ended Apr 26 Forecast

Week ended Apr 19 Actual

Year ago Apr 26

Five-year average

Apr 26

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+55

+92

+62

+72


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,480

2,425

2,048

1,842


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

34.6%

37.0%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

1.94

1.99

2.30

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

8.91

9.09

9.97

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

10.34

10.21

10.45

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

56

56

89

96

86

U.S. GFS CDDs

80

81

59

59

64

U.S. GFS TDDs

136

137

148

155

150

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

97.0

96.4

96.6

103.1

94.4

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.1

7.0

6.4

8.2

7.5

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

104.1

103.3

102.9

111.3

101.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.1

2.2

1.9

2.1

2.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.8

6.1

6.3

6.1

5.6

U.S. LNG Exports

11.7

12.2

11.9

13.4

8.8

U.S. Commercial

7.8

5.9

5.5

7.2

5.8

U.S. Residential

10.1

6.3

5.7

9.2

6.9

U.S. Power Plant

28.6

30.3

31.5

29.1

28.4

U.S. Industrial

23.3

21.8

21.7

22.0

21.5

U.S. Plant Fuel

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

76.9

71.1

71.2

74.3

69.4

Total U.S. Demand

97.4

91.5

91.3

95.9

86.2







U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

79

80

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

80

80

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

81

82

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended May 3

Week ended Apr 26

Week ended Apr 19

Week ended Apr 12

Week ended Apr 5

Wind

15

16

16

16

15

Solar

6

6

6

6

5

Hydro

7

7

7

7

7

Other

1

1

2

1

1

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

39

37

37

37

38

Coal

13

13

13

13

13

Nuclear

19

19

19

20

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

1.68

1.55


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.48

1.41


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.24

2.08


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.43

1.36


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.47

1.36


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.71

1.56


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

1.51

1.61


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.11

0.88



AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.91

0.68



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

29.00

28.00

PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

33.50

39.50

Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

15.75

27.75


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

57.00

59.67


Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

2.25

10.75


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

2.25

6.75



Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Philippa Fletcher and Nick Zieminski

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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