US natgas prices up over 2% on rising feedgas to Freeport LNG
Adds latest prices
April 22 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 2% on Monday, as an increase in feedgas to the Freeport LNG export plant and a drop in output outweighed lower demand forecasts for next week and a mild weather outlook.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.9 cents, or 2.2%, to settle at $1.791 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a two-week high at 12.8 bcfd, as the amount of gas flowing to Freeport LNG climbs to 0.6 bcfd from 0.1 bcfd on Friday.
Freeport said in late March it expects Trains 1 and 2 to remain shut until May for inspections and repairs, while Train 3 was operating.
"Our perception of this market remains one in which downside price risk appears limited while we also concede that our suggested upside price possibilities may require several weeks," energy advisory Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 96.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023.
LSEG forecasts gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 91.7 bcfd this week to 98.2 bcfd next week.
"The demand for natural gas is kind of on the low side because the weather is pretty mild, it's spring time, although that will change as we go into May and June," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy at StoneX Financial.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday said utilities injected 50 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to the storage during the week ended April 12.
U.S. gas production has dropped by around 10% so far in 2024 as several energy firms, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.
EQT is currently the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N.
Meanwhile, European gas prices declined, after gains last week, on comfortable supply and rising wind output. NG/EU
Week ended Apr 19 Forecast | Week ended Apr 12 Actual | Year ago Apr 19 | Five-year average Apr 19 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +64 | +50 | +77 | +59 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,397 | 2,333 | 1,986 | 1,770 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 35.4% | 36.4% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.20 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 9.43 | 9.95 | 13.49 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 10.50 | 10.88 | 12.34 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 93 | 119 | 132 | 161 | 165 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 58 | 52 | 16 | 34 | 31 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 151 | 171 | 148 | 195 | 196 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 97.3 | 96.8 | 97.0 | 101.3 | 95.0 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 104.2 | 103.7 | 103.7 | 108.9 | 102.8 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 10.7 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 14.4 | 10.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 6.7 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 8.4 |
U.S. Residential | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 11.8 |
U.S. Power Plant | 27.9 | 28.9 | 29.8 | 25.6 | 22.7 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.5 | 23.4 | 22.4 | 21.5 | 25.9 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 71.9 | 77.6 | 71.8 | 71.2 | 76.2 |
Total U.S. Demand | 91.7 | 98.2 | 92.9 | 93.5 | 94.1 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Apr 26 | Week ended Apr 19 | Week ended Apr 12 | Week ended Apr 5 | Week ended Mar 29 | |
Wind | 16 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 16 |
Solar | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
Other | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 38 | 35 | 37 | 38 | 38 |
Coal | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Nuclear | 20 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.43 | 1.59 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.46 | 1.38 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.16 | 2.22 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.40 | 1.28 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.37 | 1.41 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.47 | 1.53 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.50 | 1.96 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -0.63 | -0.69 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.45 | 0.93 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 24.50 | 26.50 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 23.25 | 25.50 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 15.50 | 24.50 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 23.25 | 25.50 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | -0.50 | 1.50 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | -5.50 | -1.00 |
Reporting by Daksh Grover and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Alison Williams
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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