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March 28 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures fell about3% on Tuesday to a30-month low on rising output and mild weather forecasts that should allow utilities to start injecting gas into storage at the beginning of April.

"A shift toward milder temperature expectations during recent days has contributed to much of the price weakness," analysts at energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates told customers in a note. "Add in a lift in production back toward a record pace ... and conditions have been ripe for this price slide."

Theprice decline came even though the amount of gas flowingto liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants was ontrack to hit a monthly record high in March after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February. Freeport LNG shut in June 2022 due to a fire.

On their second to last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.8 cents, or 2.8%, to settle at $2.030 per million British thermal units (mmBtu),their lowest since September 2020.

That put the front-month close to the psychologically significant $2 per mmBtu that could trigger numerous option contracts.

"Stops would very likely be elected versus violation of the big whole number versus $2," said Bob Yawger at Mizuho, a bank.

With April expected to expire on Wednesday and the May contract trading about 13 cents higher than futures for April, Yawger said "there is a chance the roll can save natural gas from sliding over the $2 cliff if (it) can just hang in there until after tomorrow's expiration."

Futures for May, which will soon be the front-month, fell about 7 cents to settle at $2.15per mmBtu.

The market has been extremely volatile this month, with the front-month gaining or losing more than 5% on nine of the past 19 trading days. So far this year, gas prices were down about 53%.

Freeport LNG's export plant was on track to pull in about 1.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas on Tuesday, up from 1.2 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv data. On March 8, Freeport LNG said it anticipated feedgas flows would rise and fall as the plant returns to full production over the "next few weeks."

Sources familiar with the plant said Freeport LNG had canceled some cargoes for March due to issues with one of three liquefaction trains, and noted the facility could take longer than the company expects to return to full service. Liquefaction trains turn gas into LNG for export.

When operating at full power, Freeport LNG can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export.

Total gas flows to all seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.1 bcfd so far in March, up from 12.8 bcfd in February. That would top the monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March 2022, before the Freeport LNG facility shut.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.5 bcfd so far in March from 98.1 bcfd in February. The monthly record is 99.9 bcfd in November 2022.

Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 12.

With warmer spring-like weather expected to reduce the amount of gas burned to heat homes and businesses, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 110.3 bcfd this week to 103.9 bcfd next week. Those forecasts, however, were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday as LNG exports rise.

Mild winter weather allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage so far this year and should let them start injecting fuel into inventories at the beginning of April.

Gas stockpiles were about 23% above their five-year average (2018-2022) during the week ended March 17 and were expected to end about 20% above normal during the colder-than-normal week ended March 24, according to federal data and analysts' estimates. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Bernadette Baum and Jonathan Oatis

For Refinitiv type ENERGY in Eikon search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down or see: cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageid=usa-gas 
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Reuters nEiko terminal. 
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html 
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG 
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR 
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL 
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/ 
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC 
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44 
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS 
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

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