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Week Ahead – BoJ, Fed and BoE meetings: a hike, a hold and a cut?

A trio of central bank decisions coming up from the BoJ, Fed and BoE One might hike, one might stand pat and the other cut rates ECB to also be in focus as Eurozone flash GDP and CPI data are due Week will culminate with crucial US jobs report BoJ expected to taper; will it hike too? The Bank of Japan has barely left the headlines lately.
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US GDP and PCE inflation up next before July FOMC – Preview

Fed to get final clues on growth and inflation before July meeting But with traders more preoccupied with politics, will the data move the dollar? Preliminary GDP is due Thursday and PCE inflation on Friday, both at 12:30 GMT Fed still wants to see more progress The recent inflation reports have brought some much needed relief for both policymakers and the markets, pointing to a resumption of the downward trend after several months of sideways movement.
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BoC to cut rates again, what's next? – Preview

Bank of Canada to slash rates by 25bps for the second time in a row More easing expected, but policymakers might signal a data-dependent approach USDCAD tests key resistance of 1.3740; key support at 1.3620   Investors are confident that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point for the second time in a row to 4.5% when it announces its policy decision on Wednesday.
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PMIs could momentarily take focus away from US developments – Preview

Wednesday's PMI surveys key for both the Fed and the BoE Eurozone PMI manufacturing survey could disappoint again US PMIs unlikely to unsettle September Fed expectations UK figures could surprise on the upside after the general election Important PMI survey prints this week as both the Fed and the BoE meet soon Despite last week’s stock market correction and the latest developments in the US Presidential race dominating the headlines, economic data releases this week sho
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Week Ahead – Flash PMIs, US GDP and BoC decision on tap

US data awaited amid overly dovish Fed rate cut bets July PMIs to reveal how economies entered H2 BoC decides on monetary policy, may cut rates again Will investors add to their Fed rate cut bets? With investors ramping up their Fed rate cut bets, the US dollar suffered during the first half of the week, although it recovered some ground on Thursday.
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ECB could disappoint expectations for a dovish shift – Preview

ECB meets with near zero chances for a rate cut ECB members continue to disagree about the rates outlook A dovish shift looks unlikely as the focus rests with the Fed Euro showing unexpected strength despite political unrest ECB meets but all eyes remain on the US The ECB is preparing for the last meeting before the summer lull with developments elsewhere making President Lagarde’s job even more challenging.
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Bullish pound eyes $1.30 ahead of UK inflation test – Preview

June CPI numbers the highlight of this week’s UK data flurry Could the Bank of England cut interest rates next month? Pound undeterred as it extends July gains Job stats and retail sales to follow Wednesday’s CPI report (06:00 GMT) On target Inflation in the UK peaked much higher than in other major economies during the height of the energy crisis in 2022. Logic would therefore dictate that it would take longer to come down, and that is exactly what happened in 2023, to t
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Week Ahead – ECB set to hold rates, plethora of data on the way

ECB is not expected to cut in July but will it signal one for next meeting? Retail sales will be the main highlight in the United States UK CPI report will be vital for BoE’s August decision China GDP data to kickstart busy week ECB meets amid sticky inflation The European Central Bank concludes its two-day policy meeting on Thursday but no change in interest rates is anticipated after trimming them by 25 basis points at last month’s gathering.
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UK data eyed as pound celebrates Labour win – Preview

Monthly GDP and production figures for June on tap Strong data might hurt August rate cut expectations Pound flirts with $1.28 ahead of Thursday’s release (06:00 GMT) Uptick in GDP expected The UK economy got off to a solid start this year, emerging strongly from a technical recession in the second half of 2023. GDP grew by an impressive 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in the January-March period.
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Could US CPI report finally bring about a Fed pivot? - Preview

Further decline in headline CPI is expected in June Labour market is also showing signs of slowdown Will Thursday’s report (12:30 GMT) convince the Fed it’s time to cut? Ahead of that, Powell testifies on Tuesday (14:00 GMT) Fed still not convinced After several months of upside surprises earlier in the year, CPI inflation finally seems to be moving in the right direction.
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China’s problems could cloud RBA’s hawkish intentions – Preview

China to gain more airtime this week The ailing housing sector and the bond rally in focus RBA remains hawkish, but consumer appetite is critical Aussie benefits from dollar weakness Market’s focus could turn to China this week The post non-farm payrolls week tends to be a quiet one as the market digests the latest developments and prepares for the next risk events.
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Spotlight on kiwi as RBNZ decides on rates next week – Preview

Interest rates expected to hold stable at a 15-year high of 5.5% NZ inflation is still problematic; will the RBNZ talk about a rate hike again? NZDUSD bulls have some work to do; must surpass 0.6188-0.6200 to gain more fuel   Kiwi has poor performance  The New Zealand dollar has faced difficulties this year in its exchange rate with other major currencies.
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Week Ahead – Round two of French elections, Powell testimony and US CPI

French parties race to block Le Pen’s RN Powell testifies before Senate Banking Committee US CPI data to shake Fed rate cut bets RBNZ to leave OCR untouched, focus on language   Euro traders keep gaze locked on French election Traders will be sitting on the edge of their seats on Sunday, in anticipation of Monday’s open and what market impact the second round of the French election will have.
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Investors await NFP to validate their Fed rate cut bets – Preview

Investors expect two rate cuts, even though Fed signals one Recent data corroborates investors’ take Nonfarm payrolls waited for more confirmation The report comes out on Friday, at 12:30 GMT   Fed appears hawkish, but data paint a different picture At its latest gathering, the FOMC appeared more hawkish than expected, revising its interest rate projections from three quarter-point reductions by the end of the year to just one.
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Canada’s unemployment rate likely to rise to more than 2-year high Loonie gains some territory in the beginning of the week Employment report due on Friday at 12:30 GMT Canada employment report may guide the BoC's next policy decision Friday is the day that Canada will release employment figures, which may prove to be very important for the policy decision that the Bank of Canada will take in July.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURGBP, USDJPY, USDCAD

French elections help euro to recoup some losses Friday’s NFP report is the week’s main driver as USDJPY holds near highs Canadian employment report next in focus with USDCAD in range French and UK elections --> EURGBP The euro experienced an increase on Monday following the initial round of France's election, which resulted in the far-right party taking the lead, albeit by a smaller margin than anticipated.
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What can we expect from the ISM business PMIs next week? – Preview

ISM manufacturing PMI to tick higher; services PMI to lose some pace Business outlook could stay unchanged; rate cut forecasts will remain inflation-driven    EURUSD stays neutral after core PCE inflation; needs a strong rebound above 1.0885   What happened previously? Dollar traders will pay close attention to the US ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI readings for June due on Monday and Wednesday respectively at 14:00 GMT.
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Week Ahead – French and UK elections on the horizon, US jobs report eyed too

France and UK go to the polls; will elections bring chaos or order? US payrolls report for June awaited as Fed hawks don’t budge Eurozone CPI, Fed minutes and ECB forum also on investors’ radar Macron’s gamble set to backfire Political risks came back to haunt the euro in June as the resurgence in popularity for far-right parties sparked jitters in financial markets.
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Eurozone CPI report: further noise or a proper signal to cut rates again? – Preview

ECB members disagree about the rates outlook Key data releases including the June CPI figures A soft inflation report is unlikely to result in a dovish July ECB meeting Political risks keep the euro under pressure The ECB hawks are clearly upset It has been three weeks since the first ECB rate cut, and the situation feels very different to a traditional monetary policy easing cycle.
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Will the core PCE inflation persuade the Fed to cut rates? – Preview

US core PCE inflation index could resume downtrend Fed may ask more evidence before cutting interest rates EURUSD trades near key support zone. Is it time for an upside reversal?    Inflation could hit a new low in May Friday will see the release of the Fed’s favorite core PCE inflation measure at 12:30 GMT as the world’s largest central bank keeps looking for signs of sustained price stability around its 2.0% target almost a year after it paused its hiking cycle.
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