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Dollar turns to Fed minutes for more fuel – Preview

Minutes of latest Fed meeting will be released at 19:00 GMT Wednesday Given strength of US economy, Fed has warned against early rate cuts If the minutes echo this view, dollar could extend its winning streak   Traders recalibrate Fed rate path The US economy continues to fire on all cylinders. Economic growth is on track to hit 3% this quarter, the labor market is historically tight, and inflation readings have been persistently hot in recent months.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD

Will USDJPY find its next bullish catalyst this week to resume its uptrend? EURUSD stays victim to the dollar; needs significant gains to violate downtrend GBPUSD supported, but not bullish yet; focus on 1.2700 region   FOMC meeting minutes, S&P Global business PMIs --> USDJPY In response to upbeat US data, investors have almost convinced themselves that the Fed will not deliver its first rate cut in spring while they are also undecided whether June’s policy meeting wi
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Could Eurozone PMI surveys open the door to a March ECB rate cut? – Preview

All eyes are on growth as PMI and IFO surveys are released this week The market could be looking for dovish hints at the ECB minutes Euro remains on the back foot against the pound Euro area PMI surveys will be published on Thursday 09:00 GMT Strong US data releases help the ECB hawks The upside surprises recorded by the recent US labour market statistics and the US inflation report have forced the market to reconsider its monetary policy expectations for 2024. Apart from the
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Week Ahead – Fed minutes headline a data-heavy week

Dollar shines after inflation surprise, awaits latest Fed minutes  In Europe, business surveys will be crucial for euro and sterling Canadian and Australian data releases also on the agenda     Fired up dollar turns to FOMC minutes It was a beneficial week for the US dollar, which charged higher after data revealed US inflation is not cooling down as quickly as investors had hoped.
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Will Canadian CPI data offer the loonie any support? – Preview

Inflation in Canada has been stuck above 3.0% since the summer The Bank of Canada is keeping rate hike option on the table Yet, the loonie has been on the backfoot versus the dollar this year Will Tuesday’s CPI data (13:30 GMT) put BoC’s inflation fight back on track? The long fight to get inflation to target The Bank of Canada has made great strides in its bid to get inflation back to its 1-3% target band, but as is the case in the United States and other major economies,
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Forecasts point to higher unemployment rate Upside surprise is likely, as employment change expected to rise Aussie remains steady before the release on Thursday at 00:30 GMT Aussie heads lower ahead of jobs data Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia being one of the last to lower rates in 2024, the Australian currency has struggled.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY

US CPI figure may confirm another bullish wave for EURUSD UK data this week could clear GBPUSD’s next direction Japan GDP to reverse higher; USDJPY may lose ground US CPI --> EURUSD In the US, inflation has been going down over time, but the CPI shows that the drop in the last few months has stopped short of bringing it all the way down to 2%.
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Will January’s US CPI inflation be a game changer? – Preview

Forecasts point to stable inflation, weaker core CPI Upside surprise is likely, as business indicators point to higher prices   US economy has a blockbuster performance The US economy has left analysts speechless. Although the Fed has raised interest rates to the highest in four decades, the economy kept growing at a healthy pace in the last quarter of 2023 and six months after the central bank paused its tightening cycle.
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Week Ahead – US CPI in the spotlight as dovish Fed bets fade

All eyes on US CPI on Tuesday after run of strong data Retail sales on the agenda too for the US dollar Pound on standby for UK data flurry, including CPI and GDP Japanese GDP and Australian employment coming up too Will US CPI remain sticky? Inflation in the United States has generally been trending lower but the progress to get it all the way down to 2% has stalled in recent months, at least according to the CPI metric.
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Pound traders lock gaze on UK inflation and GDP data - Preview

Investors price in rate cuts despite BoE’s ‘higher for longer’ mantra Will the UK CPI and GDP data confirm that view? CPI inflation on Wednesday (07:00 GMT), GDP on Thursday (07:00 GMT) Traders assign an 80% chance of a June BoE rate cut When they last met, Bank of England (BoE) policymakers decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%.
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What impact will Canada's employment figures have on the loonie? – Preview

Canada’s economy likely added more jobs in January Ivey PMIs rises to its highest level in 9 months BoC summary of deliberations gets releasedon Wednesday Loonie rises ahead of Friday’s data due at 13:30 GMT In Canada, a number of data releases are scheduled for this week. On Tuesday, the Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index (PMIs) came out, which will be followed by the summary of deliberations from the most recent Bank of Canada meeting on Wednesday.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD

USD/JPY halts post-NFP gains near familiar resistance; ISM services PMI awaited AUD/USD misses a bullish breakout. Will the RBA come to the rescue? USD/CAD stuck within the 1.3400 territory ahead of Canadian jobs report   ISM non-manufacturing PMI --> USD/JPY Another US jobs report beat analysts’ forecasts by a large margin on Friday, helping USD/JPY to close the day higher by 1.3% at 148.32 on expectations the Fed may not cut interest rates in March.
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Will weak jobs data prompt the RBNZ to drop its hiking bias – Preview

RBNZ remains hawkish despite slowing inflation and weaker growth Investors price in 90bps rate cuts by the end of 2024 Focus turns to jobs data for Q4 on Tuesday at 21:45 Despite hawkish RBNZ, data drive investors to price in rate cuts At its November gathering, the RBNZ held its official cash rate (OCR) steady at 5.5% and noted that inflation remains too high and that if price pressures were to become stronger than anticipated, interest rates would likely need to rise further.
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Week Ahead – RBA decision and US data on the menu

Dollar cannot sustain Fed-fueled advance, will ISM data help?  Reserve Bank of Australia could abandon its tightening bias  Crucial data releases also from China, Canada, and New Zealand Fed warns against early rate cuts It was an eventful week in global markets. The spotlight fell on the Federal Reserve, which shot down expectations it would cut interest rates in March, with Chairman Powell stressing that this is not the “base case" scenario.  Even though inflation
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Will the RBA drop its tightening bias? – Preview

RBA stands pat in December after considering a hike Rate cut bets come forth after weak data and slowing inflation But CPI details may allow officials to keep the tightening door open The decision will be announced on Tuesday at 03:30 GMT December’s hawkish hold At its December decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates unchanged after raising them by 25bps in November.
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How will Eurozone flash CPI affect the euro? – Preview

Preliminary CPI inflation to slow down in January Investors to stick to their rate cut projections as GDP stagnates FOMC policy announcement might have a bigger impact on EURUSD   Eurozone economy avoids recession but not Germany It’s not a secret that the Eurozone has been lagging the US economy for more than a decade, but the gap widened significantly in 2023 when the former started to move in the wrong direction in the face of post-pandemic inflation pressures, high intere
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Nonfarm payrolls to decide the dollar’s fortunes – Preview

US employment data will hit the markets on Friday at 13:30 GMT Another solid jobs report expected, supported by early indicators If so, dollar could receive a boost as investors unwind rate cut bets Dollar shines in early 2024 It’s been a phenomenal start to 2024 for the US dollar, which has already risen more than 2% against a basket of major currencies as a streak of encouraging economic data reinstilled confidence in the US economy, forcing traders to dial back bets of immedi
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Chinese PMIs in the spotlight; Australian inflation key for next week’s RBA – Preview

Quarterly Australian inflation on Wednesday; could surprise on the upside Chinese PMI surveys also on Wednesday; Chinese stock indices remains under pressure Aussie’s outperformance against the US dollar depends on stronger data releases Market focusing on the Fed and US labour data Amidst a week monopolized by Wednesday’s Fed meeting and Friday’s US labour market statistics, which could play a crucial role in the market’s short-term performance, the calendar also includes
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD

Fed meeting in focus with USDJPY remaining under pressure Positive NFP report may drive EURUSD lower BoE to keep rates unchanged as GBPUSD consolidates Fed policy meeting --> USDJPY The most important event this coming week will be the January policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. Investors are still sure that a dovish turn is on the way.
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Could BoE maintain its hawkish stance? – Preview

The BoE meets on Thursday but low expectations for significant announcements Quarterly projections could support market expectations for rate cuts Pound would benefit against the US dollar from a hawkish BoE meeting First rate-setting meeting for 2024 The Bank of England holds its first gathering for 2024 on Thursday at 12:00 GMT, a day after the respective Fed meeting.
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