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Özel raporlar

A year in the life of a gold day trader

A simulation to represent the trading process of a gold trader in 2023 Using a generic trading strategy, the results and the importance of stop losses are examined Central bank meetings and US labour market data were the main causes of sizeable moves Laying the background for this simulation Being a retail trader is an extremely challenging endeavor that tests a person’s abilities on a daily basis.
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How does a UK recession affect the pound’s fate?

BoE maintains more hawkish stance than Fed, ECB Despite recession in H2 2023, rate cut bets were not altered January data suggests the economy may have turned a corner With general elections looming, what’s next for the pound? UK enters recession in H2 2023 Despite dropping its tightening bias at its February gathering, the Bank of England (BoE) maintained a more hawkish stance than the Fed and the ECB, pushing back against interest rate cuts.
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Has the Japanese yen missed the recovery train?

Yen down more than 6% against US dollar this year already Traders less confident Japan will raise rates, as inflation slows For the yen to recover, global economy needs to weaken Yen feels the blues Another year, another meltdown for the Japanese currency. A combination of worsening economic data and some cautious messages by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have raised doubts about whether a cycle of rate increases lies ahead, inflicting heavy damage on the yen.
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What is next for commodity-linked currencies?

Risk linked currencies lose correlation to S&P 500 Dollar outperforms all as Fed implied rate path rises BoC abandons tightening bias, but RBA and RBNZ stay hawkish China impacts aussie and kiwi, loonie linked to oil prices Surrendering to the greenback’s dominance Just before the turn of the year, the risk-linked currencies - the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar - also known as the commodity-linked currencies, have come under selling pr
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Why are Chinese stocks melting down?

Chinese stock markets sink to lowest levels in five years Real estate crisis and other problems haunt investors  Valuations are cheap, but more is needed for lasting recovery Chinese equities implode It’s been a tough few years for Chinese stock markets. Shares in mainland China have fallen to their lowest levels since 2019 as investors continue to liquidate their positions, despite a series of stimulus measures by Beijing that were meant to stop the bleeding.  An ongoin
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What now for the US dollar after rate cut delay?

US dollar re-energized as strong data, hawkish Fed dent early rate cut bets American economy still churning out new jobs, shows no signs of cracks Will hot economy scupper the Fed’s plan to ease policy this year? From recession fears to overheating risk The US dollar may have ended 2023 on a bearish note as rate cut speculation reached fever pitch, but that has certainly not set the tone for 2024. In fact, the greenback rallied in the first week of January and the year-to-date u
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S&P 500 at all-time highs, expected to make bigger moves ahead – Volatility report

Volatility remains low across the FX spectrum with the exception of EUR/USD Gold volatility drops but silver remains at its midpoint; oil and Bitcoin set for small moves S&P 500 volatility rises significantly; remaining stock indices in calmer waters Volatility in EUR/USD has jumped as the pair recorded a sizeable correction last week following some key data releases.
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Can rate cuts and geopolitics propel gold to fresh record highs?

Gold’s uptrend hits a snag; 2024 characterized by consolidation phase But ingredients for a rally are still there Geopolitical risks and Fed rate cuts hold key to rekindling the bulls Scaling new heights as world goes from crisis to crisis Since 2020, the world has been stumbling from one crisis onto another, creating the perfect ground for a massive rally in gold prices.
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Volatility Report – January 23, 2024

Volatility remains significantly low across the currency board Commodity markets seem quiet as well, oil exhibits more volatility than metals US indices in the middle of volatility range, JP225 and Bitcoin are rather hot The recent range-trading in most major currency pairs has caused their expected volatility to drop to relatively low levels.
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Volatility Report – January 16, 2024

Volatility crashed across the FX spectrum including EUR/USD and JPY crosses Gold and Silver volatility drops; oil and Bitcoin set for sizeable moves Stock indices in turbulent waters, JP225 volatility records a new monthly high  The recent range-trading in EUR/USD has caused the expected volatility to drop to the lowest level of the past month, despite some key data releases.
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Could the market price in an ECB rate cut in March?

Data have to turn quickly negative for the March gathering to become live Market assigns only 30% chance for a March move; April rate cut is a done deal January concludes with preliminary PMIs and the January 25 ECB meeting Despite the upside surprise at the December inflation report, the market remains convinced that the ECB will probably be the first one to announce a rate cut in 2024. The market is currently pricing in a 30% probability of a March 7 rate move.
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Market continues to price in aggressive rate cuts for 2024

The 2024 market theme remains for several rate cuts from most central banks Fed is seen cutting rates six times despite the November Presidential election ECB and the BoC to cut first; RBA the last one to join the club BoJ is finally seen hiking for the first time since 2007 – will it prove wishful thinking? Last year ended with clear feelings from the market's side about the direction of rates in 2024: rate cuts across the board, apart from the Bank of Japan.
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Is oil headed for another supply war?

Oil prices remain under pressure despite Middle East crisis Risk of another supply war between US and OPEC is rising Outlook for oil seems negative as supply outpaces demand    Oil unable to capitalize on geopolitical tensions Oil prices have taken a beating in recent months, falling by around 23% since late September despite a series of production cuts from the OPEC+ cartel that were meant to reduce supply and stabilize prices.
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Volatility Report – January 9, 2024

EUR/USD and GBP/USD volatility picks up, JPY crosses seem quiet Gold and Silver volatility inches lower, oil and Bitcoin set for big moves US indices in calm waters; DAX and JP225 volatility at monthly highs EUR/USD expected volatility remains high after a market moving NFP report and ahead of the US CPI data on Thursday. On the flip side, yen crosses are expected to experience very low volatility going forward.
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Cryptos Year Ahead 2024: Spot ETF approval and Bitcoin halving take centre stage

Phenomenal year for cryptocurrency markets; 2024 could be even better Approval of spot-Bitcoin ETFs expected to spur institutional demand Bitcoin has shined in each halving year, will the streak extend?   Cryptos licked their wounds in 2023 After a catastrophic 2022, which was characterised by recurring blowups and cases of fraud within the crypto industry, this year has been a spectacular one for digital coins.
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Stock market outlook 2024: Soft landings, rate cuts, and elections

Stellar year for US stock markets, fueled by ‘soft landing’ hopes Can the rally persist in 2024, despite high valuations and election uncertainty?  European valuations are much cheaper, partly reflecting recession concerns   US stocks race higher, but tougher environment ahead It’s been a sensational year for US equity markets.
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Volatility Report – December 19, 2023

EUR/USD volatility eases aggressively, major JPY crosses remain in turbulent waters Gold and oil volatility at their midpoints, silver expected to experience sizeable moves Volatility drops in stock indices except JP225; Bitcoin returns to calmer periods EUR/USD expected volatility dropped to the lowest level of the past 30 days as the market appears to be preparing for the much-needed break.
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Commodities Year Ahead 2024: Fed policy to drive gold, oil to dance to the rhythm of OPEC+

Gold enters uncharted territory twice in 2023 Fed policy to remain gold's main driver in 2024 Industrial metals to stay locked on China Easing demand, OPEC+ supply, and geopolitics will shape crude oil   Fed rate cut expectations fuel gold After a dull 2022, gold staged a decent comeback in 2023, entering uncharted territories twice and appearing to be headed for a more than 10% yearly gain.
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Volatility Report – December 12, 2023

EUR/USD volatility in neutral zone, major JPY crosses in turbulent waters Gold and silver follow opposite volatility paths, oil remains quiet Volatility picks up in stock indices except S&P500; Bitcoin set for sizeable moves EUR/USD expected volatility remains subdued despite the crucial CPI print expected later today. Meanwhile, the Yen has disrupted a period of calmness across the currency board as its pairs are the only ones showing a jump in volatility relative to last w
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Volatility Report – Introducing our new weekly publication

Hello XM customers/viewers, Today we are introducing our new weekly post that helps you locate instruments that might make big moves in the coming sessions; the Implied Volatility Table. So, what is Implied Volatility and why it is important? Implied or expected Volatility is a forecast of a likely movement in a financial instrument's price, which is derived from market-traded option prices.
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Yatırım fikirleri

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Piyasa özeti

Bildirim: XM Group şirketlerinin her biri yalnızca gerçekleştirme hizmeti ve online yatırım platformumuza erişim sağlar. Herhangi bir kişinin web sitesinde bulunan veya web sitesi üzerinden sağlanan içeriği görüntülemesine ve/veya kullanmasına izin vermek, bu hizmeti değiştirmek veya genişletmek amaçlı değildir ve bu hizmeti ne değiştirir ne de genişletir. Bu tür erişim ve kullanım her zaman şunlara tabidir: (i) Şartlar ve Koşullar; (ii) Risk Uyarıları ve (iii) Tam Bildirim. Bu nedenle bu tür içerikler yalnızca genel bilgi amacıyla sağlanır. Özellikle, online yatırım platformumuzun içeriklerinin finans piyasalarında herhangi bir işleme girmek için bir teşvik veya bir teklif olmadığını lütfen dikkate alın. Herhangi bir finans piyasasında yatırım yapmak sermayeniz için önemli düzeyde risk taşır.

Online yatırım platformumuzda yayınlanan tüm materyaller yalnızca eğitim/bilgilendirme amaçlıdır ve finansal tavsiye, yatırım vergisi veya yatırım tavsiyesi ve önerileri ya da yatırım fiyatlarımızın kaydı veya herhangi bir finansal enstrümanda işlem yapılması için bir teklif veya teşvik ya da talep edilmemiş finansal promosyonları içermez ve içerdiği şeklinde bir değerlendirme yapılmamalıdır.

Görüşler, haberler, araştırma, analizler, fiyatlar, diğer bilgiler veya bu web sitesinde bulunan üçüncü taraf sitelere verilen bağlantılar gibi her türlü üçüncü taraf içeriğin yanı sıra XM tarafından hazırlanan içerik de “olduğu gibi” esasına göre, genel piyasa yorumu olarak sağlanır ve bir yatırım tavsiyesi oluşturmaz. Herhangi bir içeriğin yatırım araştırması olarak yorumlanmasıyla ilgili olarak, içeriğin bağımsız yatırım araştırmasını desteklemek üzere tasarlanmış yasal gerekliliklere uygun hazırlanmadığını ve bu amacın güdülmediğini, aynı şekilde ilgili yasalar ve mevzuatlar kapsamında pazarlama iletişimi olarak değerlendirileceğini dikkate almalı ve kabul etmelisiniz. Buradan erişebileceğiniz Bağımsız Olmayan Yatırım Araştırması Bildirimimizi ve yukarıdaki bilgilerle ilgili Risk Uyarımızı okuduğunuzdan ve anladığınızdan emin olun.

Risk uyarısı: Sermayeniz risk altında. Kaldıraçlı ürünler herkese uygun olmayabilir. Lütfen Risk Bildirimi'mizi dikkate alın.