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EURUSD


Análisis XM

Market Comment – Dollar remains strong ahead of key data, yen surges

Dollar keeps marching north, PMIs on tap Yen extends rally as traders unwind carry trades Aussi and kiwi slide on China concerns, loonie awaits BoC Stocks trade in the red, tech earnings in the spotlight Traders continue to buy the US dollar The dollar traded higher against all but one of its major peers on Tuesday and continued to do so today.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD tests descending trend line

EURUSD eases from 1.0950 level Bullish cross between SMAs still intact Momentum oscillators head south EURUSD is still diving from the 1.0950 resistance level, finding strong support near the long-term descending trend line. The simple moving averages (SMAs) posted a strong bullish crossover; however, the technical oscillators are suggesting more downside pressure.
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Heightened volatility across all asset classes – Volatility Watch

• Yen crosses are volatile as they retreat from multi-year highs • Volatility in oil and gold surges, Bitcoin follows suit • US equities exhibit higher volatility amid correction fears The euro and dollar pairs maintain low volatility ahead of the US PCE release on Friday and a quiet week on the European data front. On the flipside, volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the pairs have been extending their latest pullbacks from multi-year highs.
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Market Comment – Market in waiting mode as key data in sight

VP Harris close to securing nominee status Dollar trades sideways against the euro Tech stocks’ reaction higher helps S&P 500 breathe better Gold under pressure, drags bitcoin lower US Presidential race hots up Incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris has apparently made a significant step in securing the Democratic party’s nominee status by earning the support of enough delegates ahead of the August 19-22 party convention.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDCAD, Gold, EURUSD

BoC policy meeting may send loonie even lower US Core PCE index could drive gold south EURUSD may not affected by Eurozone PMIs figures BoC interest rate decision --> USDCAD The Bank of Canada will announce its monetary policy on Wednesday. This bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points at its recent meeting, citing falling inflation and slow economic growth.
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PMIs could momentarily take focus away from US developments – Preview

Wednesday's PMI surveys key for both the Fed and the BoE Eurozone PMI manufacturing survey could disappoint again US PMIs unlikely to unsettle September Fed expectations UK figures could surprise on the upside after the general election Important PMI survey prints this week as both the Fed and the BoE meet soon Despite last week’s stock market correction and the latest developments in the US Presidential race dominating the headlines, economic data releases this week sho
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Week Ahead – Flash PMIs, US GDP and BoC decision on tap

US data awaited amid overly dovish Fed rate cut bets July PMIs to reveal how economies entered H2 BoC decides on monetary policy, may cut rates again Will investors add to their Fed rate cut bets? With investors ramping up their Fed rate cut bets, the US dollar suffered during the first half of the week, although it recovered some ground on Thursday.
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Market Comment – Stock rout deepens on chipmaker selloff as dollar bounces back

Wall Street headed for weekly slump amid China trade war fears Dollar stages dramatic reversal on safety bids but gold loses out Euro slips after ECB decision, yen steady but off week’s highs Rate cut optimism turns to gloom Equity markets were mostly in the red on Friday, adding to the weekly losses after a torrid week that began with optimism that a Fed rate cut is nearing but ended on heightened fears of a fresh trade standoff between China and the US.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD reaches the midpoint of a long-term downtrend

EURUSD rally slows down near 4-month high Gets bearish vibes, but positive trend is still alive above 1.0900 ECB to hold interest rates steady at 12:15 GMT; Will it signal a second rate cut?   EURUSD took a breather after heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut lifted the pair as high as 1.0947 on Wednesday. The price has been displaying a pattern of higher highs and higher lows in the past three weeks, but its failure to reach the upper band of the bullish channel on th
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Market Comment – Stocks suffer a fall but not sounding the alarm yet

Stocks under pressure but dollar fails to make gains ECB meets today, unlikely to produce a dovish shift Pound ignores data; yen continues to rally against the dollar Stock markets under pressure; feels like 2007 again Following last weekend’s events, the market is probably paying more attention to Donald Trump’s economic plan.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD accelerates but not out of the woods yet

EURUSD picks up steam ahead of Thursday's ECB rate decision  Short-term risk skewed to the upside; key obstacles nearby   EURUSD accelerated to an almost four-month high of 1.0947 on Wednesday, recovering from June’s damage and recouping more than half of the 2024 downleg, which sent the price as low as 1.0600. The pair, however, is not out of the woods yet.
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A repeat of the 2006-07 price action could spell trouble for the S&P 500

Performance of key market assets resembles the 2006-07 period The S&P 500 index could experience a sizable correction The current US 10-year yield drop could have legs Yen could benefit further as euro/dollar volatility is possibly heading north Fed readies for a September rate cut  Almost one year after the last Fed rate hike, the latest developments in the US, predominantly the recent labour market report and last week's weaker inflation prints, have probably tipped
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ECB could disappoint expectations for a dovish shift – Preview

ECB meets with near zero chances for a rate cut ECB members continue to disagree about the rates outlook A dovish shift looks unlikely as the focus rests with the Fed Euro showing unexpected strength despite political unrest ECB meets but all eyes remain on the US The ECB is preparing for the last meeting before the summer lull with developments elsewhere making President Lagarde’s job even more challenging.
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Higher market volatility led by yen, gold and equities – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low despite weekend’s events Volatility in commodities jumps, apart from oil Stock indices experience stronger volatility, decoupling from Bitcoin Euro/dollar volatility remains very low despite last week’s weaker CPI report and the weekend’s gun attack on the Republican Presidential candidate. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the BoJ is rumoured to have intervened last week in dollar/yen, ahead of the
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold

EURUSD tests June's peak as ECB rate decision looms GBPUSD pauses impressive rally near 1.3000 ahead of CPI data Gold resumes weak momentum after closing above 2,400   US retail sales --> Gold It was a shocking weekend of a failed assassination attempt against Donald Trump, which caused a heated moment in the US political landscape.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD jumps to a fresh 1-month high

EURUSD edges higher after break above SMAs The pair advances to its highest level since June 4 Oscillators suggest that bullish forces are strengthening EURUSD has been in a steady uptrend after the bullish breakout from its downward sloping trendline in place since December 2023. Moreover, the pair conquered both its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), surging to a fresh one-month peak on Friday.
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Market Comment – A confused market tries to find its footing

Dollar is steadier following the weekend’s events Chairman Powell speaks today as outlook becomes challenging Bitcoin benefits from developments and gold remains above $2,400 China’s CPC plenary starts today and could generate headlines Market digests the events of the weekend A numb start to the trading week as the market is digesting the weekend’s events regarding the US Presidential candidate Donald Trump.
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A September Fed rate cut could lead to an easing spree during end-2024

Market prices in at least two rate cuts from Fed ECB, BoE expected to follow suit despite divergent economic conditions SNB and BoC could ease further; RBNZ possibly close to a summer rate cut BoJ and RBA could surprise with rate hikes during 2024 We are halfway into 2024 and the countdown for this year’s key event, the US presidential election, has already started.
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Week Ahead – ECB set to hold rates, plethora of data on the way

ECB is not expected to cut in July but will it signal one for next meeting? Retail sales will be the main highlight in the United States UK CPI report will be vital for BoE’s August decision China GDP data to kickstart busy week ECB meets amid sticky inflation The European Central Bank concludes its two-day policy meeting on Thursday but no change in interest rates is anticipated after trimming them by 25 basis points at last month’s gathering.
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Market Comment – Weaker US CPI sends US stocks into a tailspin

Top US stocks fall despite the weaker CPI report Dollar suffers but euro/dollar fails to make significant gains Gold climbs above the $2,400 level again Yen benefits from dollar weakness and possible intervention The September Fed rate cut is a step closer  The US inflation report for June managed to produce a downside surprise.
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