German carmakers most exposed to Chinese counter-tariffs
Corrects in story published on June 24 name of BMW jv to BMW Brilliance Automotive and removes RIC in 26th paragraph
June 24 (Reuters) -Retaliatory tariffs by China to the European Commission's proposed additional duties of up to 38.1% on Chinese-made electric vehicles could spell trouble for European carmakers.
Industry executives have warned against the tariffs, fearful of counter-tariffs or other measures which could affect the competitiveness of their cars in China at a time when they are already struggling to keep up with a growing number of domestic competitors in the EV market.
German carmakers are most exposed to potential counter-measures as trade data shows almost a third of their 2023 sales came from China. And while most vehicles sold in China are made locally, many top-end models are still imported from Germany.
Most exposed is Porsche P911_p.DE, majority-owned by Volkswagen VOWG_p.DE. It has no production in China and imports all cars sold there, equivalent to 25% of global sales.
GERMAN CARMAKERS
Less than 5% of the 4.8 million vehicles delivered by Volkswagen, Porsche, BMW BMWG.DE and Mercedes-Benz MBGn.DE to customers in China were exported in 2023, data from autos association VDA shows.
Reports have indicated a counter-tariff by China would apply to cars with an engine of 2.5 litres or larger. Cars imported to China of that size account for around 1% of VW sales, rising to 2% for BMW, 4% for Mercedes and 17% for Porsche, according to Stifel Research.
Still, given that exported cars tend to be higher-end models with substantial profit margins, Stifel estimates the negative impact on the German carmakers' operating profit (EBIT) would be significant at between 4-10%.
PORSCHE
Porsche cars are overwhelmingly produced in Germany, despite 25% of sales in China.
Still, Porsche's luxury branding could allow it to raise prices more than mass-market carmakers in the event of counter-tariffs being imposed, HSBC analysts said in a note this month.
Deliveries in China were down 15% last year to 79,283 vehicles, and suffered a further drop of 24% in the first quarter of 2024, a decline in part attributed to the difficult economic situation in the country.
Porsche is building a research and development site in Shanghai and premiered a tailored version of the Taycan for the Chinese market at the Beijing auto show.
VOLKSWAGEN
Volkswagen has the lowest exposure to counter-tariffs, with just 2.5% of cars sold in China made in Germany, its full-year statement shows.
Still, given its ambitions to protect and even boost its market share of 14.5% to 15% despite stiff competition from local carmakers, the company would suffer greatly under boycotts or other counter-measures to punish German companies in China.
Volkswagen Group China, including Porsche, and its Chinese joint ventures, sold more than 3.2 million cars in 2023, of which 3.06 million were locally produced.
Audi, Volkswagen's premium brand, has a slightly higher share of imported vehicles in local sales at just over 8%.
MERCEDES-BENZ
China is Mercedes-Benz's largest market for new car sales, accounting for around 36% of unit sales, just over 737,000 in 2023.
Just over 80% of cars sold in China in 2023 were made locally, with the rest imported. Its GLE SUV and S Class sedans are among the top three most popular imported cars in China alongside the Porsche Cayenne, according to data tracked by China Merchants Bank International.
Mercedes-Benz imports top-end models like the S-Class, GLC, G-Class and Maybach from Europe and the USA to China, where it prefers to build smaller cars like the A-class, E-class and C-class.
BMW
BMW generates nearly a third of vehicle sales in China, totalling just above 826,000, of which around 13% come from imported cars, its annual report shows.
Imported models from Germany include the i4, the 7 Series and the 5 series. The 'Neue Klasse', the carmaker's long-awaited new model series, will be produced locally from 2026.
BMW's China-made cars are produced by joint ventures including BMW Brilliance Automotive, in which it holds a 75% stake, and a second JV with Great Wall Motor Co 601633.SS.
Both these JVs also produce vehicles for export to Europe, the iX3 and an electric Mini, which will be subject to the European Commission's tariffs.
EUROPEAN PEERS
Swedish carmaker Volvo Car VOLCARb.ST, majority-owned by China's Geely 0175.HK, generates a quarter of its unit sales in China but only around 10% of profits, HSBC analysts said.
Sales of imported vehicles make up about 4% of Volvo's Chinese sales, with the rest produced locally.
Franco-Italian Stellantis STLAM.MI has one of the lowest regional exposures to China, with the exception of its recent investment in Chinese EV maker Leapmotor 9863.HK, with which it plans to export two EV models from China by year-end.
Like other luxury carmakers, all of Ferrari's RACE.MI sales in China are imports - but these make up just 9% of global sales, with growth concentrated in the United States.
Stellantis-owned Ferrari could also leverage its pricing power to pass on tariffs to customers.
French automaker Renault RENA.PA has low exposure to China, where it operates through joint ventures with Jiangling Motors 000550.SZ and Brilliance Auto, and Nissan 7201.T which has a market share of roughly 3%.
Its Dacia Spring EV is manufactured in China by local partner Dongfeng 0489.HK.
Renault and China's Geely announced a joint venture in May to develop combustion and hybrid engines.
China urges EU to reverse 'wrong practices' on EV tariffs nL1N3IA1HI
INSTANT VIEW-EU to impose duties of up to 38% on Chinese electric vehicles nL1N3IA0NS
FACTBOX-China-based EV makers hit with European Union tariffs nL1N3IA0HO
Compiled by Isabel Demetz and Eva Orsolya Papp in Gdansk, Victoria Waldersee and Christina Amann in Berlin and Ilona Wissenbach and Christoph Steitz in Frankfurt; editing by Milla Nissi, Kirsten Donovan and Alexander Smith
Actifs liés
Dernières actualités
Avertissement : Les entités de XM Group proposent à notre plateforme de trading en ligne un service d'exécution uniquement, autorisant une personne à consulter et/ou à utiliser le contenu disponible sur ou via le site internet, qui n'a pas pour but de modifier ou d'élargir cette situation. De tels accès et utilisation sont toujours soumis aux : (i) Conditions générales ; (ii) Avertissements sur les risques et (iii) Avertissement complet. Un tel contenu n'est par conséquent fourni que pour information générale. En particulier, sachez que les contenus de notre plateforme de trading en ligne ne sont ni une sollicitation ni une offre de participation à toute transaction sur les marchés financiers. Le trading sur les marchés financiers implique un niveau significatif de risques pour votre capital.
Tout le matériel publié dans notre Centre de trading en ligne est destiné à des fins de formation / d'information uniquement et ne contient pas – et ne doit pas être considéré comme contenant – des conseils et recommandations en matière de finance, de fiscalité des investissements ou de trading, ou un enregistrement de nos prix de trading ou une offre, une sollicitation, une transaction à propos de tout instrument financier ou bien des promotions financières non sollicitées à votre égard.
Tout contenu tiers, de même que le contenu préparé par XM, tels que les opinions, actualités, études, analyses, prix, autres informations ou liens vers des sites tiers contenus sur ce site internet sont fournis "tels quels", comme commentaires généraux sur le marché et ne constituent pas des conseils en investissement. Dans la mesure où tout contenu est considéré comme de la recherche en investissement, vous devez noter et accepter que le contenu n'a pas été conçu ni préparé conformément aux exigences légales visant à promouvoir l'indépendance de la recherche en investissement et, en tant que tel, il serait considéré comme une communication marketing selon les lois et réglementations applicables. Veuillez vous assurer que vous avez lu et compris notre Avis sur la recherche en investissement non indépendante et notre avertissement sur les risques concernant les informations susdites, qui peuvent consultés ici.
