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Technical Analysis – EURUSD oversold near channel’s limits

EURUSD meets key support area Oversold conditions are met, but threats remain Bulls need to drive above 1.0780 EURUSD shifted to the sidelines on the four-hour chart after Monday’s decline halted at the lower boundary of the two-month-old bearish channel. The pair remained resilient within the channel despite marking a new lower low at 1.0569 on Tuesday, boosting optimism that the bulls could soon take control of the market.
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Market Comment – Dollar at 10-month high as yields keep surging

US 10-year yield hits 16-year high amid no letup in hawkish Fed rhetoric Dollar powers ahead, euro and pound crumble, yen in danger zone Stocks resume decline after late rebound on Wall Street Bond market rout deepens The selloff in bond markets is showing no sign of easing as investors are dumping government securities in favour of cash amid expectations that interest rates in the US may yet rise further.
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Could this week’s CPI prints diminish the chances of further ECB rate hikes? – Preview

Inflation data in the spotlight as the market prices in rate cuts The ECB kept the door open to more rate hikes, but growth remains a big thorn German CPI due out on Thursday; the euro area aggregate on Friday (09:00 GMT) Has the ECB hiked for the last time? Contrary to the other key central banks, the ECB announced another rate hike at its September meeting.
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After hawkish Fed, dollar turns to core PCE inflation – Preview

Fed lifts dot plot, adds fuel to dollar’s engines Focus turns to core PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge Slowdown could hurt the dollar, but broader outlook remains bright The data is released on Friday, at 12:30 GMT Fed signals another hike, fewer cuts in 2024 The Fed decided to keep rates steady last week, but policymakers appeared in hawkish armor, projecting a higher rate path than back in June.
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD marks its worst month of 2023

GBPUSD set to close the month with heavy losses Short-term risk bearish but oversold conditions evident Support could emerge within the 1.2100 area GBPUSD has been in the red almost every single week since peaking at a 15-month high of 1.3141 in mid-July, with selling forces intensifying significantly in September. The pair is 4.0% down this month, suffering its worst month so far this year.
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Technical Analysis – EURJPY extends sideways pattern just below 15-year high

EURJPY stuck in a tight range during September Hovers a tad below 15-year peaks supported by 50-day SMA Momentum indicators are tilted slightly to the bullish side EURJPY has been in a prolonged uptrend since the beginning of the year, posting a fresh 15-year peak of 159.75 on August 31. Since then, the price has been trading without a clear direction around the 158.00 handle, while the short-term oscillators are reflecting a neutral-to-positive near-term bias.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, AUDUSD

US inflation could ease; will USD/JPY extend uptrend above 150? Eurozone inflation to soften too; EUR/USD at a make-or-break point Australian inflation to reverse higher; AUD/USD looks for a rebound US core PCE inflation --> USD/JPY The Fed’s favorite core PCE inflation index is expected to ease significantly to a new two-year low of 3.9% y/y on Friday at 12:30 GMT, erasing July’s moderate pickup to 4.3% y/y.
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US 500 index posts fresh 3-month low in today’s session Bears eye the ascending 200-day SMA Momentum indicators suggest that the recent decline could be overstretched The US 500 stock index (cash) has been experiencing a strong pullback following its rejection near the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in mid-September. However, the aggressive selloff could be over soon as the momentum indicators are hinting at oversold conditions.
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Technical Analysis – USDJPY is ready to challenge the 148.85 zone

USDJPY continues to trade in an uptrend mode, above all EMAs Looking ready to challenge the 148.85 resistance barrier Both the RSI and the MACD detect positive momentum USDJPY is trading higher today, getting closer to the 148.85 zone, marked by the highs of October 31 and November 1. Overall, the pair remains in an uptrend mode, well above the upwards sloping trendline drawn from the low of March 24, and above all three of the plotted exponential moving averages (EMAs). All thes
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Market Comment – Fragile sentiment after weak PMIs, higher for longer message

Mood sours amid hawkish Fed, recession fears and US shutdown risk Stocks mixed after last week’s losses as bond yields near cycle highs Dollar holds firm as yen under pressure after dovish Ueda Subdued sentiment as uncertainties weigh Trading got off to a mixed start on Monday as equities and the US dollar were lacking clear direction after the Fed doubled down on its ‘higher for longer’ stance and the flash PMIs reignited recession jitters.
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Key data releases scheduled with the market counting down to the next RBA meeting The RBA is feeling relieved after the decision to pause by the Fed August CPI (01:30 GMT) could provide some breathing space to the aussie RBA was first on the scene The RBA kicked off the busy central banks’ season by keeping rates unchanged at 4.1% at the September 5 meeting.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD extends decline to a fresh 5-month low

EURUSD in a clear downtrend, posting a fresh 5-month bottom of 1.0614 The descending 50-day SMA is approaching 200-day SMA, setting the stage for a death cross Momentum indicators are heavily skewed to the bearish side EURUSD has been in a steady decline after peaking at the 18-month high of 1.1275 on July 18, generating a series of lower highs and lower lows.
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Technical Analysis – USDCAD finds support at the 50-day SMA

USDCAD in an aggressive decline from its 5-month high of 1.3693 Dives beneath the 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA holds its ground for now Momentum indicators suggest more pain in the short term USDCAD has been undergoing a strong downside correction from its five-month peak of 1.3693 recorded on September 7. In the last couple of sessions, the pair has been attempting to pierce through both the 200- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs), with the latter proving rather resilie
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Oil prices charge higher, but rally has an expiration date

Oil prices stage impressive rally, driven by a classic supply shortage This occurred despite worries of lower demand from Europe and China Risk is that US ramps up production, putting an expiration date on this rally Crude deficit Oil prices went through the roof in recent months as the market encountered a serious supply deficit, courtesy of Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Bitcoin tumbles after Fed signals higher interest rate trajectory – Crypto News

Bitcoin drops 1.8% on Thursday following a hawkish a FOMC meeting Experiences a strong technical rejection at the 50-day SMA on the daily chart Cryptos expected to extend their rangebound pattern in the absence of any major catalyst Fed inflicts severe damage to risky assets Cryptocurrencies started the week on the front foot, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $27,000 mark for the first time since August 31. Nevertheless, the positivity got shattered after the FOMC rate decision on Wedne
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Week Ahead – US core PCE and Eurozone flash CPIs eyed after rate pause signals

PCE inflation to grab attention on Friday as Fed signals higher for longer But markets might be more worried about a government shutdown Eurozone flash CPIs will also be the in the spotlight on Friday Chinese PMIs to be watched for recovery signs Will core PCE add to second inflation wave worries? The latest spike in oil prices is causing some headaches for policymakers as energy costs are on the rise again just as they’ve started to see the result of their hard-fought ba
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Market Comment – Stocks roll over as US yields climb to new highs

Mayhem in US bond market spills over into stocks  Dollar struggles to advance despite soaring yields  Sterling sinks on BoE decision, yen retreats after BoJ  US yields leap higher The storm in US bond markets has evolved into a hurricane, inflicting deep wounds on riskier assets such as stocks. Yields on US government bonds have gone ballistic, with the yield on ten-year notes hitting a fresh cycle high of 4.50% earlier today.  When yields climb with such force, it has re
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Technical Analysis – USDCAD bears still in control

USDCAD is in the red today, tests the support of the 200-day simple moving average The mixed momentum indicators complicate the outlook The SMAs’ convergence could open the door to a sizeable move ahead USDCAD is moving lower today after bouncing off the July 14, 2023 upward sloping trendline. The downleg since the September 7, 2023 peak has been impressive but the path appears to be trickier at this stage, especially as the bulls have decided to react more forcefully.
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Technical Analysis – GBPJPY recovers some ground after BoE slump

GBPJPY slid below 50-day SMA after BoE surprise decision to hold rates steady Remains in a gentle downward path despite today’s bounce after BoJ leaves policy unchanged  Will the short-term pullback extend? GBPJPY had been stuck in a prolonged uptrend since the beginning of the year, posting an eight-year high of 186.75 on August 22. However, the pair has been experiencing a downside correction since then, with the momentum indicators suggesting more losses in the near term.
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Technical Analysis – WTI oil futures turn positive again after pullback from 10-month high

Slide in oil doesn’t last long as bulls remain in control But further gains will depend on whether 50% Fibonacci can be overcome WTI oil futures (cash) are heading higher on Thursday, reversing an earlier decline to a one-week low of 88.96. The price brushed a 45-week peak of 93.08 on Tuesday, extending the year-to-date gains to more than 15%.
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