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ECB policy meeting: another rate cut and emphasis on September’s data – Preview

ECB widely expected to deliver a second rate cut to 3.50% September’s data could be important for October’s meeting EURUSD looks bearish; next support could develop near 1.0990     Spotlight turns to economic growth too Inflation is no longer the sole focus, as economic growth has gained equal importance, athough central banks still prioritize maintaining symmetrical price stability around 2.0%.
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EURCHF flirts with 0.9350 support Stochastics and RSI suggest upside move EURCHF has lost around 2.6% following the pullback from the 0.9580 resistance level, holding well below the descending trend line. The 0.9350 level looks to be a tough obstacle for traders, with the technical oscillators indicating a potential upside recovery. The stochastic is turning higher from the oversold area, while the RSI is ticking higher beneath the neutral threshold of 50. If the price rises further
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Technical Analysis – USDCAD rises back near 1.3600 key zone

USDCAD tries to keep the battle going with the 200-day SMA Momentum oscillators indicate more upside moves USDCAD advanced considerably on Friday, meeting the 200-simple moving average (SMA), slightly beneath the 1.3600 round number. A successful rally above the aforementioned level could add some optimism for more bullish actions, hitting the 50-day SMA at 1.3665, while even higher, the 1.3790 barrier may pause the ascending move.
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Could US CPI tip the balance in favour of a 50bps Fed rate cut? – Preview

Market is digesting last week’s US labour market data The August CPI report could fuel 50bps rate cut expectations Dollar weakness could continue if inflation surprises to the downside The US inflation report will be published at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday Markets are preparing for the first Fed rate cut At the recent Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chairman Powell indirectly pre-announced the September 18 rate cut and highlighted the importance of the labour market in the current
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Daily Comment – Dollar and equities rebound from NFP-led losses as focus turns to US CPI

US jobs report adds to slowdown fears but provides no clarity about Fed policy Dollar whipsaws while stocks tumble as ‘September effect’ takes hold But risk sentiment improves ahead of US CPI report and ECB decision Signs of optimism after NFP bloodbath Markets began the second week of September in a somewhat more upbeat mood as US slowdown jitters were put on hold even as inflation data out of China pointed to persistently weak demand in the world’s second-largest economy.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

ECB’s rate cut is expected with EURUSD staying below 1.1200 US CPI data may be another sign before Fed’s decision GBPUSD may plunge further if UK employment data disappoint ECB interest rate decision --> EURUSD Several important economic data releases and events may affect market sentiment in the next few days, following a gloomy week.
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Technical Analysis – Gold weakness might have legs

Gold is trading lower today, but close to recent highs It failed to benefit from Friday’s negative stock market reaction Momentum indicators remain mixed Gold is trading lower again today, recording its second consecutive red candle, but remaining a tad below its recent all-time high of $2,532. Last Friday’s non-farm payrolls figure resulted in an acute market reaction with the S&P 500 index recording its worst weekly performance since 2023, but gold failed to benefit.
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Quick Brief – US jobs bounce back less than expected, dollar slips

US economy adds 142k jobs in August versus forecast of 160k But unemployment rate dips as wage growth accelerates   Nonfarm payrolls bounced back in August, rising by 142k, while the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2% as expected. However, the payrolls figure is below the consensus forecast of 160k jobs and the prior month’s reading of 114k was revised down to 89k, feeding doubts about the health of the US economy.
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EURAUD trades higher, partly reversing August’s correction It is has climbed above a key support level in an aggressive fashion Momentum indicators are turning mostly bullish EURAUD is trading higher today, experiencing its fourth consecutive green candle, after testing the 1.6250 level in late August. Peripheral currencies have been under pressure this week as the market is preparing for the next big events, starting with the non-farm payrolls figure later today.
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Week Ahead – ECB poised to cut again, US CPI to get final say on size of Fed cut

ECB is expected to ease again, but will it be another ‘hawkish cut’? US CPI report will be the last inflation update before September FOMC UK monthly data flurry begins with employment and GDP numbers ECB to cut rates for second time The European Central Bank’s carefully choreographed rate-cutting cycle got off to an awkward start in June after last-minute data upsets.
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Technical Analysis – US 500 index could see further weakness

US 500 index posts negative days lately Next support at long-term rising trend line Momentum oscillators confirm bearish correction The US 500 cash index is recording the fourth straight negative session, losing more than 3%. The price is currently retreating beneath the 5,565 strong resistance level as well as below the 20- and the 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs).
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Technical Analysis – US dollar index continues to feel selling interest

US dollar index pulls back from 101.90 50- and 200-day SMAs post bearish cross Stochastic dives towards oversold region The US dollar index has declined considerably from the 101.90 resistance level, standing beneath the 20-day simple moving average (SMA). Furthermore, the 50- and the 200-day SMAs recorded a bearish crossover, while the technical oscillators indicate a negative bias.
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Daily Comment – Investors lock gaze on NFP data

Dollar slides as data offer little respite to concerned investors NFP to accelerate somewhat, but PMI surveys pose downside risks S&P 500 and Dow Jones end in red ahead of the job numbers Gold rebounds, approaches record high; oil stabilizes Data fail to alleviate investors’ worries The dollar traded lower against all of its major counterparts on Thursday as the boost received by the better-than-expected initial jobless claims and the improving ISM non-manufacturing PMI
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Technical Analysis – USDCAD doubts September’s upturn

USDCAD trims September’s uptick to trade near key trendline Technical signals are mixed; a break below 1.3480 could shift the bias to the downside US & Canadian employment figures due at 12:30 GMT   USDCAD started Friday’s NFP session with soft negative momentum after a stagnant day, which prevented the pair from examining its weekly high of 1.3564. While the technical indicators have barely shown any improvement, there is still a chance for a positive turnaround as long
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Cryptos’ short-term outlook rests on the Fed – Crypto News

Cryptos trade lower due to overall negative market sentiment Spot ETFs outflow confirm investors’ lower appetite Cryptos desperately looking for new bullish catalysts Ethereum a tad above some key support levels Cryptocurrencies remain under pressure The cryptocurrency world remains under severe pressure with bitcoin repeatedly failing to climb above the $60k area.
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD bounces off 0.6700 but looks weak

AUDUSD flirts with weekly downtrend line Stochastics create bullish cross But RSI holds near neutral level AUDUSD has reversed to the upside after the rebound off the 0.6700 round number with strong barrier coming from the weekly descending trend line around 0.6750. Over the last couple of weeks, the market has been developing back and forth of the aforementioned diagonal line, looking weak to change the outlook to a more positive one.
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Quick Brief – ISM non-mfg. PMI ticks up, but offers little relief

ISM non-mfg. PMI rises to 51.5 from 51.4 Prices charged and new orders improve, but employment cools This leaves some traders concerned ahead of tomorrow's NFP The ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 from 51.4, with the prices paid and new orders subindices rising as well. However, employment cooled further, with the respective index falling to just a tenth above stagnation.

Technical Analysis – EURUSD bulls back into play

EURUSD bounces off 1.1030 Stochastics and RSI head north EURUSD has been advancing from the 1.1030 support level, surpassing the 20-day SMA and reaching the 1.1100 round number. The %K and %D lines of the stochastic oscillator have posted a bullish crossover in the oversold territory, while the RSI is pointing upwards above the 50 level.   Should the pair manage to strengthen its positive momentum, the next resistance could come around the 13-month high of 1.1200. A break highe
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Quick Brief – US ADP numbers surprise to the downside

ADP employment prints at 99k, missing expectations Odds of 50bps Fed rate cut rise again USDJPY declines considerably The US ADP employment data published today revealed a lower-than-expected rise in private sector jobs; it rose to 99k from a revised 111k previously and is below the forecast of 145k. This reading is the lowest since 2021 and could have major implications for the dollar, the stock market and the Federal Reserve's possible rate decision.
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Nvidia loses August’s wins as recession risks resurface Short-term bias skewed to the downside; more sellers wait below 100.45   Nvidia’s stock has been suffering along with other key tech stocks in the face of renewed recession fears, which could harm AI growth perspectives, losing more than 10% during the previous days. According to pre-market trading, today’s session might be another struggle after the wide miss in the ADP employment data.
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