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NZDUSD


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Market Comment – Dollar trims losses against yen, core PCE on tap

Dollar/yen rebounds after US GDP data Core PCE the next test for Fed rate cut bets Yen rally losing steam ahead of BoJ next week Wall Street extends slide, more earnings awaited GDP data adds fuel to dollar’s engines The dollar traded higher against most of its major counterparts on Thursday, trimming losses against the yen and extending its rally versus the wounded aussie, kiwi and Loonie.
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Market Comment – Stock market correction picks up speed

Fed expectations and US election affect sentiment Euro remains on the back foot against the dollar PBoC announces a surprise rate cut Gold suffers, aussie and kiwi losses pile up Stocks’ weakness intensifies Stocks are under severe pressure as the main US equity indices recorded yesterday their worst daily performance since late-2022. Considering the fact that yesterday’s US PMI surveys were mixed, and therefore not the trigger for this move, the cause of the continued w
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Market Comment – Dollar remains strong ahead of key data, yen surges

Dollar keeps marching north, PMIs on tap Yen extends rally as traders unwind carry trades Aussi and kiwi slide on China concerns, loonie awaits BoC Stocks trade in the red, tech earnings in the spotlight Traders continue to buy the US dollar The dollar traded higher against all but one of its major peers on Tuesday and continued to do so today.
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD plunges to new multi-week low

NZDUSD dives almost 4% from the July high of 0.6150 Price may rebound off 0.5875 20- and 200-day SMAs record a bearish cross Momentum oscillators indicate upside correction NZDUSD has been creating an aggressive bearish rally since the break beneath the short-term uptrend line, diving almost 4% after the pullback from the 0.6150 resistance.
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Market Comment – Wall Street extends record streak, gold joins in

Rate cut and soft landing bets propel US equities to new highs Gold also sets a new record as US yields sink despite Trump risks Pound and kiwi edge up on slight upside surprises in CPI data US stocks brace for soft landing Optimism that the Fed is well placed to engineer a soft landing by cutting rates soon continues to fuel risk appetite on Wall Street, even as equity markets globally struggle against the prospect of Trump 2.0. Worries that a second Trump presidency will lead to
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A September Fed rate cut could lead to an easing spree during end-2024

Market prices in at least two rate cuts from Fed ECB, BoE expected to follow suit despite divergent economic conditions SNB and BoC could ease further; RBNZ possibly close to a summer rate cut BoJ and RBA could surprise with rate hikes during 2024 We are halfway into 2024 and the countdown for this year’s key event, the US presidential election, has already started.
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Week Ahead – ECB set to hold rates, plethora of data on the way

ECB is not expected to cut in July but will it signal one for next meeting? Retail sales will be the main highlight in the United States UK CPI report will be vital for BoE’s August decision China GDP data to kickstart busy week ECB meets amid sticky inflation The European Central Bank concludes its two-day policy meeting on Thursday but no change in interest rates is anticipated after trimming them by 25 basis points at last month’s gathering.
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Market Comment – Wounded dollar awaits inflation numbers

Powell’s testimony dents the dollar US CPI data could deepen the wounds Pound gains as BoE’s Pill dampens August cut bets Wall Street at new highs, gold gains as well Dollar softens ahead of CPI data The US dollar drifted south against most of its major peers on Wednesday, gaining some ground only against the yen, the franc, and the kiwi.
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Market Comment – Stocks undaunted by Powell’s mixed tone

US stocks rally continues after Chairman Powell’s comments French developments and ECB doves keep euro in check China reacts to bond market rally, but real issues persist Kiwi under pressure as RNBZ turns dovish US stocks rally despite Powell’s lack of dovish shift Fed Chairman Powell kept the cards close to his chest regarding the timing of the much-expected rate cut at yesterday’s Senate testimony, but he managed to satisfy the Fed doves by stating that considerable
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD tumbles after RBNZ’s decision

NZDUSD finds support at 200-day SMA Prices have been heading lower over the last month Stochastics and RSI keep downside move NZDUSD is posting notable losses after the RBNZ’s policy decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.5%. The pair is pausing its decline near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6070 and the short-term ascending trend line.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, GBPUSD, NZDUSD

USDJPY faces minor injuries after higher US jobless rate; Powell's testimony next on the agenda GBPUSD surprasses key obstacle as UK gets new government; monthly GDP data on the agenda NZDUSD waits for RBNZ rate decision; bullish outlook above 0.6188-0.6200   Fed chairman to testify on economy --> USDJPY US employment increased at a surprisingly solid pace of 206k on Friday, beating analysts’ forecasts of 190k jobs, but a faster-than-expected rise in the unemplo
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Spotlight on kiwi as RBNZ decides on rates next week – Preview

Interest rates expected to hold stable at a 15-year high of 5.5% NZ inflation is still problematic; will the RBNZ talk about a rate hike again? NZDUSD bulls have some work to do; must surpass 0.6188-0.6200 to gain more fuel   Kiwi has poor performance  The New Zealand dollar has faced difficulties this year in its exchange rate with other major currencies.
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Week Ahead – Round two of French elections, Powell testimony and US CPI

French parties race to block Le Pen’s RN Powell testifies before Senate Banking Committee US CPI data to shake Fed rate cut bets RBNZ to leave OCR untouched, focus on language   Euro traders keep gaze locked on French election Traders will be sitting on the edge of their seats on Sunday, in anticipation of Monday’s open and what market impact the second round of the French election will have.
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD meets support at 38.2% Fibo

NZDUSD is in a steady decline since early June Completion of golden cross fails to trigger a recovery Oscillators are tilted to the bearish side NZDUSD had been in an aggressive uptrend following its 2024 bottom of 0.5851 in mid-April, surging to a six-month high of 0.6220 in June. However, the pair has come under severe selling pressure since then, with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) preventing further declines for now.
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD struggles to fall beneath 200-day SMA

NZDUSD holds in downside move after pullback off 3-month high Momentum oscillators head south NZDUSD is battling with the 50- and the 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) in the daily chart, holding slightly below the previous bottom of 0.6080. Technically, the RSI indicator is falling from the 50 level and is pointing down, while the MACD is flirting with the zero level.
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Week Ahead – French and UK elections on the horizon, US jobs report eyed too

France and UK go to the polls; will elections bring chaos or order? US payrolls report for June awaited as Fed hawks don’t budge Eurozone CPI, Fed minutes and ECB forum also on investors’ radar Macron’s gamble set to backfire Political risks came back to haunt the euro in June as the resurgence in popularity for far-right parties sparked jitters in financial markets.
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Market Comment – Core PCE in focus ahead of French elections

Dollar gains after first presidential debate Focus today turns to core PCE inflation Yen slides, intervention risks rise French citizens head to the ballots on Sunday Trump election win bets support dollar The US dollar traded slightly lower against most of its major peers on Thursday, extending gains only against the yen and the franc.
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD erases GDP-led pickup

NZDUSD rises temporarily after slight GDP growth surprise Bulls remain capped below 20-SMA; key support at 0.6085-0.6095   Early Thursday data revealed that the New Zealand economy experienced slightly faster growth than anticipated in Q1. However, NZDUSD rose only a few pips to 0.6164, which were swiftly erased. The bears couldn’t push past the 20-day SMA at 0.6145 for the fourth consecutive day, leading to worries that the pause in the short-term uptrend could lead to a downwa
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Week Ahead – RBA, SNB and BoE next to decide, CPI and PMI data also on tap

It will be another central-bank-heavy week with the RBA, SNB and BoE None are expected to cut but there’s room for surprises Retail sales will be the highlight in the United States Plenty of other data also on the way, including flash PMIs and UK CPI RBA is in a pickle The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the central bank theme going on Tuesday when it meets for its June policy decision.
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD recoups post-NFP slide

NZDUSD surges to its highest since March 8 But undergoes a setback after strong NFP report Oscillators ease but remain in positive zones NZDUSD has been in an aggressive uptrend following its 2024 bottom of 0.5851 in mid-April, posting a fresh three-month high last week. Although the pair came under severe selling pressure on Friday due to a stronger-than-expected NFP report, it has been trying to erase its losses in the past couple of sessions.
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