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Technical Analysis – Adobe stock struggles to clear 350 resistance level



Adobe stock has jumped above its long-term descending trendline, although this may have been a false breakout as the positive momentum has already started to fade. Subsequently, the price is facing a fresh obstacle at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) around 345.

The stochastic oscillator seems to be headed towards a bearish crossover of the %K and %D lines, while the MACD histogram has yet to rise above its red signal line after the latest recovery in the price action.

Should the near-term bullish bias continue to weaken, the 20-day SMA, which is approaching the descending trendline, would likely be the first point of defence in the 335 region. A drop below it would turn attention to the 50-day SMA, which has just intersected the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the August-September downtrend at 315.73. However, breaching this support mark too could send the price towards September’s two-and-a-half year low of 274.11.

If, though, the stock manages to increase its bullish momentum and there is a convincing break above the 350-resistance area where prices reversed lower in both November and December, the next point of friction is likely to come at the 50% Fibonacci of 362.68. Further up, the 200-day SMA near 377 could block further advances, while slightly higher, the 61.8% Fibonacci of 383.09 could be another obstacle.

However, clearing the latter would shift the medium-term outlook to bullish and the longer-term negative picture to neutral. On the other hand, a revisit of the September trough of 274.11 would signal a resumption of the longer-term downtrend.    

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